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  • Position : Advisor to Director
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
  • Position : Professor
  • Affiliation : Department of Integrated Communications, The Higher School of Economics
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Russia Confidential editors

On December 11, 2013 Trialogue Club International and its members celebrate the Club’s 20th anniversary. Trialogue began as the Moskovskiye Novosti newspaper’s exclusive information project before being taken over by PIR Center and earning itself a reputation as a prestigious international club, with regular meetings held in Moscow and Geneva.

Ever since the Club's foundation, the provision of exclusive information and analysis "for Club members only” was seen as an integral part of the whole endeavor. That was the idea behind Moscow News Confidential; in the early to mid-1990s the bulletin supplied the Russian capital’s chattering classes with well-sourced gossip from the Kremlin. Its first subscribers included British Petroleum, the Israeli ambassador, presidential administration chief Aleksandr Voloshyn, and the Moscow mayor’s office. In 1996, after the presidential elections in Russia, the bulletin changed its name to Russia Confidential and was further developed by PIR Center at the premises of the MGIMO school of international affairs. The bulletin shifted its focus to foreign policy, and in 1998 it was renamed once again to Voprosy Bezopasnosti (Security Issues). It increasingly began to concentrate on the global and national security agenda, with a particular emphasis on analysis and forecasting rather than straight reporting. In 2010 the bulletin returned to its old name, Russia Confidential.

That is why as we celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Trialogue Club International, we also mark the anniversary of Russia Confidential. No man is prophet in his own country, as old saying goes. But in honor of the occasion we have decided to conduct an experiment and prove that saying wrong.

In this special anniversary issue of Russia Confidential we look back at various forecasts and predictions made by our contributors over the past two decades; some of them were made exactly 20 years ago. As it turns out, many of the issues that were high on the agenda at the time still remain very topical. What is more, many of our predictions have come true, to a greater or lesser extent; some are proving very accurate right before our eyes. They include the emergence of the BRICS bloc; the political future of Vladimir Putin; the recognition of Kosovo's independence; the situation with missile defense; the Arab Spring; the recent deal on the Iranian nuclear program; and many others.

As before, in 2014 Russia Confidential and its contributors will continue to provide Trialogue Club International members with well-informed analysis and insight into the future of Russian foreign policy and the global political situation. And, just as it was 20 years ago, the bulletin remains “for Club members only”.

20 Years of Timely Analisys and Accurate Forecasts (full text)


RUSSIA CONFIDENTIAL, Вып. № 1 (205), том 13. January 2014.