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  • Position : Consultant
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
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What future for the JCPOA

Andrey Baklitskiy

The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) may soon be clarified. There is little doubt in Tehran that US will withdraw from the JCPOA. PIR Center consultant Andrey Baklitskiy, who had recently visited Teheran for participating in Russian-Iranian Dialogue, shares his view on the future of Iran nuclear deal.

With May 12 – the deadline for US President to waive nuclear related sanctions against Tehran – fast approaching, there is a real possibility that Washington will violate its obligations under the Iran deal, basically walking out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Since his election campaign President Donald Trump consistently criticized the Iran deal, during his presidency he gradually undermined the agreement and has specifically promised not to wave sanctions in May unless his demands for re-negotiation of the JCPOA are met (Iran has ruled out any changes to the existing deal). His new cabinet members – National Security Advisor John Bolton and the nominee for the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – unlike their predecessors, seem inclined to support the President’s effort to leave the JCPOA.

French President Emmanuel Macron on a state visit the US on April 24 presented his plan for a bigger, four-pillar deal, that would keep the JCPOA, deal with Iranian nuclear program in the long-term, address Iranian ballistic missiles and the regional security issues.[1] It is unclear, whether Donald Trump will subscribe to this project. Even if he does, there is no indication, Tehran would be willing to negotiate all of the proposed issues with the West or if such negotiations would be successful. If President Trump agrees to the European plan, this might get the JCPOA through May 12, however, the issue will re-emerge in September 2018 when the new waiver would expire.  

What future for the JCPOA (full text)

 


[1] President Trump Oval Office Meeting with French President Macron. CSPAN video library. April 24, 2018. https://www.c-span.org/video/?444586-1/presidents-trump-macron-speak-iran-nuclear-deal



Imprint:

RUSSIA CONFIDENTIAL, Issue № 2 (252), Volume 17. 2018

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