The recent developments around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, have again sparked discussions about whether Tehran is dragging out the negotiation process to win time to produce nuclear weapons, thus presenting the world with a fait accompli. Regional neighbors of Iran, too, follow the events in Vienna with increasingly close attention and strain, worrying that, with or without a deal, Iran will pursue a more emboldened regional strategy. While empirical evidence does shed some light on Iran’s nuclear behavior, a different way of looking at the issue is through a conceptual rather than empirical lens. This essay makes such an attempt by drawing upon the argument from a newly published book, “Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation”, by Vipin Narang, a renowned expert on deterrence posturing and proliferation theory.

With the arrival of Joe Biden at the White House, there have been real prerequisites for the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal. Will it be a return to the previous agreement, or it will be necessary to add new articles, because of which the United States under Donald Trump withdrew from the deal earlier in 2018, considering it insufficiently tough and not covering all vital issues. But do the additional articles for the JCPOA meet Russia's interests, and does it need the Iran deal at all?

The summer in Tehran turned out to be eventful. The sixth round of negotiations in Vienna that began in June did not meet the optimistic and timid expectations of the participants for the return of Iran and the United States to the terms of the JCPOA before the presidential elections in the Islamic Republic. As predicted, the conservative candidate Ibrahim Raisi won the election. The negotiation process was delayed and was put on pause to allow the new, 8th, President of Iran to take office and establish the work of the government. All plans to restore the JCPOA were postponed to August, the period after Raisi's inauguration, however, according to some European politicians, the Vienna talks will resume in September.

"All I have to say to Trump, abandon this reckless game before it’s too late! You are deluding yourself if you think you’ve been dealt all the trump cards. Your imaginary perfect is the enemy of the good. The JCPoA is a good deal. Signed not only by the United States, but also by six other countries (including Russia), it is working well. All the parties are abiding by their commitments. There can be no deal with Iran without Iran itself. Your imaginary grand bargain is a folly; it has no basis in reality."

Unlike with Bushehr 1 (wherein the 10-year contract on the procurement of Russian fuel ends in 2021), Russia will deliver all of the fuel for the eight future units.  Rosatom is also undertaking the obligation to take back the spent nuclear fuel. Thus, it will not be necessary for Iran to increase its enrichment capacity in order to provide itself with material for fuel for the NPP (one of the reasons why Iranians insisted on the further expansion of their nuclear program)