Experts

  • Affiliation : Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Center on Global Interests
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International Security index iSi increased to 2884 points. Zlobin, Fetouri comment events of the week.

14.01.2014

MOSCOW, JANUARY 14, 2014. PIR PRESS – “Important trend of 2014 will be the restructuring of the global terrorist network. A few years ago we had to deal with al-Qaeda and the two or three major terrorist organizations. But today the situation is different. There is a feeling that we are increasingly dealing with a huge number of autonomous, small and not related to each other terrorist cells that are difficult to control from one center”, ­– President of the Center on Global Interests, Nikolai Zlobin.

The new weekly international Security index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of January 6 - 13, 2014 the International Security index iSi increased to 2884 points. In Syria, the army killed more than 40 militants in the northern Aleppo. In Iraq continued clashes between the security forces and militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, in the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi. In the South of Libya as a result of tribal clashes 19 people died, deputy industry minister Hassan al-Drouhin was killed. In Egypt renewed clashes between police and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. Fighting between Christians and Muslims continued in the Central African Republic; the country's president Michel Dzhotodia resigned. In Thailand, during the antigovernment demonstration the opposition camp was shelled; the Electoral Commission proposed to move the date of country's parliamentary elections, scheduled for February 2. On the Kyrgyz-Tajik border took place skirmish between the border guards of the two countries; seven people were injured. In Ukraine, occurred clashes between security forces and protesters, there were victims. EU stock exchanges showed rise of major indexes.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Nikolai Zlobin (USA), President of the Center on Global Interests - by phone from Washington: The most important event of 2013 was the beginning of negotiations of Washington with Teheran and arrangement on a possible agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. If it was possible to complete this unprecedented event (the chances are not very high), the security situation would improve not only in the Middle East, but worldwide. It’s not the fact that such a document would be signed, as the parties have to overcome a lot of gotchas before. 

In 2014 a big challenge for the USA will be a need to restructure relations with allies. An alliance that has existed for decade now is not in the best shape. Relations between Washington and its allies are not able to fully provide the solution to all problems in the field of security. On whether the USA, NATO, Europe and their allies could set security network led by America will depend the security in the United States and in the world during the year.

Important global trend of 2014 will be the regulation and providing of electronic security. This sphere has become urgent due to the revelations of Edward Snowden, followed by discussion on the desirability of legislative acts regulating the control of privacy. It will be interesting to monitor how the state, civil society, security services and legal institutions will (or will not) find a consensus on issues of electronic security, whether there will be new Snowdens from other countries, what kind of  further revelations can be expected. Generally, the protection of electronic databases, the right of states to control the personal lives of their citizens will be a crucial question for the world in 2014.

The second significant tendency in 2014 will be created by the markets of developing countries and their impact on global security. Growth of the economies of South Africa, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Colombia and North Africa will be followed by the growth of their political ambitions and influence on the world politics. What policy steps will be taken by developing economies, whether these steps will perceive by the old players in the field of security as a threat – all these questions will be relevant in the new year.

Another important trend will be the restructuring of the global terrorist network. A few years ago we had to deal with al-Qaeda and the two or three major terrorist organizations. But today the situation is different. There is a feeling that we are increasingly dealing with a huge number of autonomous, small and not related to each other terrorist cells that are difficult to control from one center. Maybe these autonomous, terrorist organizations do not even know about each other: they have different goals, values and religions. It is harder to fight against such decentralized threats than against centralized structures. This trend will also impact the security situation in 2014.

Mustafa Fetouri (Libya), Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist – by e-mail from Tripoli: Terrorism and failed states in the region particularly in Libya will be the most important issue, which will form the security policy in 2014. Libya will continue to be troubled by its own militias and foreign interferences. It appears the West is determined to train Libyan police and security forces without any background checks on who is to be trained and for what purpose.   Ali Zeidan’s government is far too involved with the militias to ask them, let alone force them, to leave such facilities. At the same time it has already galvanized public against both police and army of Libya. Politically extension of the mandate of the General National Congress will only have negative effects. GNC is generally one of the most corrupt institutions in Libya and the majority of its members are incompetent and corrupt individuals harboring sense of vendetta and vengeance against each other and against the country itself to serve their own interests and those of other countries, particularly Qatar.

Tunisia is likely to make some headway under a new transitional government but would still face serious terrorist threats. While the En-Nahda led government was forced to quit power its clout will continue to serve as a cover for all kinds of religious fundamentalist ideologies.

The new constitution of Egypt is expected to be passed in the upcoming referendum but the country shall be less safe after the December 25, when the Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization. MB will of course fight back and they are not to be taken lightly. They are serious organization with long political history, very eager for power and with sense of revenge. What has happened in Egypt on June 30, 2013 will have a long term effect on the entire region. The major problems facing Egypt remain to be economic and social. This current state of affair helps neither.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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