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  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
  • Affiliation : Journalist
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International Security Index iSi decreased to 2776 points. Eggert, Tolipov comment events of the week.

22.07.2014

MOSCOW, JULY 22, 2014. PIR PRESS - “The latest events related to the destruction of civil airliner of Malaysian airlines in Ukraine even more seriously aggravate and deepen instability and had a direct impact on the global atmosphere of security. It is difficult to predict how events will unfold after the situation around shot down airliner. Most likely the blame for the incident would lay on the separatists in the eastern Ukraine. As Moscow supports them, for Russia - this situation will be accompanied by high emotional background”, - Member of the Royal Institute of International Relations, journalist Konstantin von Eggert.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of July 14 - 21, 2014, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2776 points. In the Donetsk region of Ukraine Malaysian Airlines Boing 777 airliner was shot down; 298 people were killed; warring sides accused each other. The UN Security Council called for an investigation of the crash. The USA imposed new sanctions against Russia. Israel expanded its military ground operation in the Gaza Strip; previously Hamas rejected the initiative of Egypt on bilateral ceasefire. In Iraq, Christians left the city of Mosul, seized by gunmen. In Syria, the militants opened fire in the center of Damascus after the inauguration of Bashar al-Assad. During the negotiations in Vienna Iran and  P5+1 agreed to work out an agreement on Iran's nuclear program until November 27. In Libya, the rebels agreed to declare a ceasefire in the airport area, where battles are on for the whole week. In Afghanistan, the Taliban attacked the airport. Pakistan Air Force struck new blows on militant positions. In Moscow, several cars derailed in the metro; 23 persons died.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Konstantin von Eggert (Russia), Member of the Royal Institute of International Relations, journalist - by phone from Moscow: Night attacks on the territory of Israel by Hamas militants provoked Israeli military operation and led to a sharp deterioration of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Fighting continued in Ukraine. Both of these events led to the deterioration of security situation in the world.

The latest events related to the destruction of civil airliner of Malaysian airlines in Ukraine even more seriously aggravate and deepen instability and have a direct impact on the global atmosphere of security. It is difficult to predict how events will unfold after the situation around shot down airliner.  The blame for the incident most likely would lay on the separatists in the eastern Ukraine. As Moscow supports them, for Russia this situation will be accompanied by high emotional background.

In the relations between Russia and  western countries a number of factors will be affected, including theaggravation of relations between Russia and the United States. These negative trends will further deteriorate international atmosphere, including situation around Russia.

Farhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon"("Caravan of knowledge") – by e-mail from Tashkent: The situation in the Ukraine, Iraq, the Middle East and Afghanistan continues to reduce the level of security in the world and in the region. The main negative factor which influences the situation in Central Asia is the political instability in Afghanistan and the last presidential election in this country. Escalation  of political struggle in Afghanistan on the background of international forces withdrawal causes concern. However, the decisive actions of the Pakistani authorities against terrorist groups had a positive impact on security in the Afghanistan-Pakistan area, including  Central Asia.

In case the Afghan political forces hadn’t agreed on the results of the presidential elections In autumn 2014 , the situation in this country would again deteriorate with new escalation of tensions.

In December 2014 parliamentary elections will be held in Uzbekistan; then in 2015 presidential will follow. In this regard, the political process in the country develops in an atmosphere of strict control over public situation. It seems that parliamentary elections will be held, as usual, in a calm atmosphere and immediate preparations for the presidential elections will start. This process is unlikely to have an impact on regional security because of the secrecy of the system and the controllability of the process.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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