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  • Affiliation : Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist
  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2794 points.Tolipov, Fetouri comment events of the week.

05.08.2014

MOSCOW, AUGUST 5, 2014. PIR PRESS - “Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in Astana Treaty establishing the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). As long as it remains a purely economic union, it will not be a real integration project. But transformation into  the political union, which is not possible in the medium term, would mean serious geopolitical turn of the newly independent states”, - Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon"("Caravan of knowledge"), Farhad Tolipov.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of July 28 – August 4, 2014, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2794 points. Israel and Hamas militants violated humanitarian truce, reached earlier with the mediation of the United Nations and John Kerry; Gaza was again subjected to fire. In Syria, troops turned the attack of the Islamists in Aleppo and hit militants near the town of Raqqa. In Iraq, on the approaches to Mosul there was fighting between the Kurds and Islamists; troops launched an operation against militants in Anbar province. In Libya, the Islamists seized the city of Benghazi. In Ukraine, the army intensified attack on all fronts around Donetsk; Minsk hosted a meeting of the international contact group on resolving the situation in the east of Ukraine. The EU imposed sectoral sanctions against Russia over the situation in Ukraine. North Korea launched ballistic missiles in an eastern direction. In China, in the province of Kashgar, there was an attack on police and government buildings. Terrorist attacks were committed in Egypt, Afghanistan, Syria and Nigeria.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Farhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon"("Caravan of knowledge") – by e-mail from Tashkent: Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in Astana Treaty establishing the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). As long as it remains a purely economic union, it will not be a real integration project. But transformation into the political union, which is not possible in the medium term, would mean serious geopolitical turn of the newly independent states. I do not think that the accession of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the EEU will be motivated just by strict economic calculations. Today the economic union of its three members looks more like a politically motivated association of political leaders rather than a full-fledged economic union of states.

But no matter how paradoxical it may sound, despite my skeptical attitude to the establishment of the EEU, signing the treaty itself and entry of Kazakhstan, as well as the expected entry of two other Central Asian countries is convergence of and consolidation in these countries. This can have a positive impact on the situation in the sphere of regional security.

Mustafa Fetouri (Libya), Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist – by e-mail from Tripoli:  Despite its free presidential elections Egypt still suffers from daily terror attacks within its borders. Even after the recent presidential elections Syria has not made any progress toward peaceful settlement of the ongoing conflict. Iraq is back to square one despite billions of dollars and thousands of lives spent in the ten years since it was invaded and occupied by the United States. Terrorist and criminal groups get Sahel countries under control with Libya turned into a hub for all kinds of criminal activities carried out by Al-Qaeda in Maghreb and its local affiliates.

Terrorism and maladministration remain the most sensitive factors that affect security in our region. Despite the so called Arab Spring which started in 2011, here in the MENA region we still lack democracy, respect to human rights and promised freedoms. Violence between rival local factions also has an adverse effect on the security issue.

I am afraid the outlook for the region is far from being positive. Instability and insecurity in Libya will always affect the whole region.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

 

 

 

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