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  • Affiliation : Chairman and Founder, Gulf Research Center, President of Sager Group Holding
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2840 points. Sager, Duarte comment events of the week.

07.10.2014

MOSCOW, OCTOBER 7, 2014. PIR PRESS - The USA’s readiness to use military force against ISIS is a good first step. However, military action alone will not solve this issue and there is need for a much broader strategic approach, which, so far, remains absent from the US strategy. There is no clear indication of plans for the day after”, - Chairman and Founder of the Gulf Research Center, Abdulaziz Sager.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of September 29 – October 6, 2014, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2840 points. In Hong Kong, after violent clashes with the authorities protests for democratization subsided. North Korea and South Korea agreed to resume high-level talks. Fighting with the Islamists occurred in Syria, near the city of Coban. In Iraq,  fighting with Islamists for the city Hit took place; the US inflicted air strikes on militant positions of the Islamic state in both Syria and Iraq. In Yemen, protests erupted regarding control the Shiite over Sana'a. Terrorist attacks occurred in Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya and Chechnya. In Donetsk, Ukraine more shelling occurred; an ICRC staff member was killed. Russia ratified the Eurasian Economic Union Treaty

Comments on the week's events by members of the PIR Center International Expert Group 

Abdulaziz Sager (Saudi Arabia) – Chairman and Founder of the Gulf Research Center – via e-mail from Riyadh: The security situation remains serious and without improvement over the past few months. In fact, the confrontation with ISIS in Iraq and Syria could lead to further deterioration in the Middle East, while the unresolved crisis over Ukraine continues to have wider global implications. On the positive side, the threat from ISIS has led states to become determined  to work together to confront this challenge. 

There is definite a need to act against the ISIS group and the Obama administration has finally understood the necessity of working to counter this threat. In that context, the USA’s readiness to use military force against ISIS is a good first step. However, military action alone will not solve this issue and there is need for a much broader strategic approach, which, so far, remains absent from the US strategy. There is no clear indication of plans for the day after. 

The strong commitment by the GCC states to act in a unified and determined manner to counter the ISIS threat and the change of government in Iraq from Nouri al-Maliki can be considered positive.

The continued spread of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the killing in Syria by both the Assad regime and ISIS fighters, as well as the Houthi rebellion in Yemen have negatively influenced the security situation in the Middle East.  

During winter of 2014, the security environment will likely remain volatile, with little variation. If violent non-state actor groups decide to take their strategy outside of the Iraqi and Syrian battlefields, the security situation could deteriorate further. Over, this is a long-term issue, which will not be solved quickly.

Sergio Duarte (Brazil), Ambassador (ret.), High Representative to the United Nations for Disarmament Affairs (2007-2012) – via e-mail from Belo Horizonte: The global security situation continues to deteriorate. The scene in the Eastern-Western European region the is still cause for concern, as relations between the EU and the United States, vis-à-vis Russia, over the situation in Eastern Ukraine have not improved. Agreements between Russia-backed rebels toward a cease-fire provided some relief, yet the overall situation does not seem to be moving toward the status quo.

In the Middle East, the widely supported US-led opposition against the ISIL terrorists has begun with aerial strikes. The effectiveness of this strategy and whether there will be retaliatory terrorist attacks on the mainland U.S. and Western European countries remains to be seen.

Another cause for concern is the current drive by the two main nuclear powers – the Unites States and Russia - to modernize their atomic arsenals. Despite reductions claimed by these countries as a result of bilateral agreements, both continue to increase their capabilities in terms of accuracy and destructive power. They show no inclination toward meaningful measures of nuclear disarmament. At the same time, lesser nuclear States seem intent to keep or develop their own arsenals under the justification that such action will ensure their security.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova via e-mail at ibragimova at pircenter.org

       

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