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  • Affiliation : Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Center on Global Interests
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International Security Index iSi decreased to 2816 points. Zlobin, Fetouri comments events of the week.

14.10.2014

MOSCOW, OCTOBER 14, 2014. PIR PRESS “Deterioration of US-Russian relations led to the situation where Moscow did not become an ally of Washington in the fight against the Islamic state, despite the fact that the Islamists pose bigger threat to Russia than to America. The fact that the Kremlin ignores anti-ISIS coalition creates a particular problem for the Americans, reducing their ability to influence the situation in the Middle East and Northern Africa”, President of the Center on Global Interests, Nikolai Zlobin.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of October 6 – 13, 2014, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2816 points. In Syria, the Kurds repelled the attacks of the Islamic state in the town of Coban. In Turkey, broke out riots against the unwillingness of the authorities to provide military aid to Syrian Kurds. In Libya, clashes of the army with militant groups continued. In Hong Kong, the government refused to negotiate with the leaders of the protesters; authorities began to dismantle the barricades. On the border between the North and South Korea took place skirmish. In Tajikistan, security measures were increased due to the threat of opposition rallies. In Ukraine, in Donetsk 12 people were killed as results of the shelling; Russia started to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border. At the CIS summit in Belarus issues of trade and development were discussed.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Nikolai Zlobin (USA – Russia), President of the Center on Global Interests – by phone from Washington: Security situation in the world in the autumn of 2014 has worsened. Islamic state has strengthened its position; the threat of terrorism has increased; communication between the global powers on security issues has worsened. Ebola virus from West Africa has also become a serious threat to global security; the epidemics threatens to spread to the EU, the USA and possibly to Russia.

In the United States, there have already been confirmed cases of Ebola. Despite of the all security measures, the victim has managed to hide the fact of contact with Ebola patient. However, the positive fact is that the USA was able to attract the attention of the international community and the United Nations to the problem and accumulate resources to fight the virus.

Deterioration of US-Russian relations led to the situation where Moscow did not become an ally of Washington in the fight against the Islamic state, despite the fact that the Islamists pose bigger threat to Russia than to America. The fact that the Kremlin ignores the anti-ISIS coalition creates a particular problem for the Americans, reducing their ability to influence the situation in the Middle East and Northern Africa.

Moscow is immersed into the Ukrainian crisis. Meanwhile, in the USA there is no great interest toward the current events in the Donbas. No vital US interests are at stake in Ukraine. However, the growth of the negative feelings towards Russia is a continuing global trend. It started after Russia incorporated the Crimea, and now, with Moscow still involved in Ukrainian affairs, this feeling only intensifies. Even the truce, reached between the authorities in Kiev and militias in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions cannot reverse the negative attitude of the West towards Russia.

In winter of 2014, the negative trends in the world will increase. The situation in Syria and Iraq, Russia's relations with the international community, the tensions in Ukraine will determine the agenda. The USA will feel the deterioration of the international situation and will try to respond adequately to the new threats.

Mustafa Fetouri (Libya), Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist – by e-mail from Tripoli: Globally the world has become far less safe than it was ten years ago. Since the invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan over a decade ago, the United States seem to continue with the old habit to act first and think later. NATO’s illegal bombing of Libya in 2011 and eventual regime change in Tripoli has for the first time put the entire North Africa region at risk of wider terrorism actions by various terror groups.

The destruction of Libya has produced a strategic disaster by allowing local and global terror groups to consolidate their presence in different cities in the North African country and spread into other countries such as Tunisia, and Egypt. Libya now is a save heaven, training ground, and supplies backyard for illegal and terror activities providing vital logistics and recruiters to hot spots including Syria, Iraq and of course the Sahel countries.

Israel’s total disregard of international law and its illegitimate settlement activities in the Palestinian land make peace in that region far more difficult than it was. The conflict in Syria has already spread into neighboring countries particularly Lebanon and Iraq and it will only be a matter of time before it engulfs Jordan and Saudi Arabia, given their destructive and destabilizing role in Syria.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

       

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