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  • Affiliation : Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist
  • Position : President
  • Affiliation : Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2835 points. Fetouri, Duatre comment events of the week.

21.10.2014

MOSCOW, OCTOBER 21, 2014. PIR PRESS - “In winter 2014 I expect the security situation to get worse. By the time the campaign against Islamic State is over we will see the group becoming active and stronger outside Syria and Iraq just like Al-Qaeda before. Libya will become hub for terrorism and its transition will become even more complicated than it has been. The USA might find itself sucked into an endless conflict in the region and light as well decide to go back to Iraq under whatever pretext”, - Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist, Mustafa Fetouri.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of October 13 - 20, 2014, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2835 points. At the summit of Asia - EU in Milan the presidents of Russia and Ukraine agreed on the gas prices for the winter supply season; Petro Poroshenko signed a law on the special status of the Donbass. Montenegro, Iceland, Albania supported the EU sanctions against Russia. In Hong Kong, clashes between police and protesters demanding democratic reforms renewed. In Syria, the battles between the army and Islamists took place in the cities of Deir ez-Zor and Coban. Turkey delivers air strikes on the positions of Kurdish rebels in the south-east of the country. In Yemen, clashes broke out between Shia and Sunni; there were victims. In Cameroon, there were clashes between the army and Boko Haram militants. Oil prices began to rise after a record fall below $ 83 per barrel.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Mustafa Fetouri (Libya), Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist – by e-mail from Tripoli: The key negative factors for the Middle East and Northern Africa region include but are not limited to the conflict in Syria, Islamic State militias advancing in Syria and Iraq, Turkey and Qatar backed Islamist militias’ control of Tripoli last August and new terror groups actively seeking foothold in eastern Egypt. Failure of the Libyan political process despite the June 25th elections, which led to two governments – the elected one, based in Tobruk, and the unelected is trying to base itself in Tripoli, – is also among the negative events of the period.

In winter 2014 I expect the security situation to get worse. By the time the campaign against Islamic State is over we will see the group becoming active and stronger outside Syria and Iraq just like Al-Qaeda before. Libya will become hub for terrorism and its transition will become even more complicated than it has been. The USA could find itself sucked into an endless conflict in the region and might as well decide to go back to Iraq under whatever pretext.

Sergio Duarte (Brazil), Ambassador (ret.), High Representative to the United Nations for Disarmament Affairs (2007-2012) – by e-mail from Belo Horizonte: In the Latin American and Caribbean region the security situation has remained stable. No major problems have arisen and relations among the countries in the region are positive. The main concerns are internal problems: drug trafficking, crime, social inequality, economic difficulties in individual countries. The strong ties between the countries in the Latin American region and the friendly and cooperative relations among them, free of threats to the security of individual countries coming from within the region are the main factors for this positive situation. The possibility of negative changes seems remote at this time. Security threats from outside the region could come as result of the deterioration of relations between the big nuclear powers.

In EU/US relations with Russia an improvement may be possible if the questions regarding the Ukraine evolve positively, but this certainly will not happen quickly.

It is still too early to assess the results of the actions by Western countries, with support from several Arab States. Aerial strikes will certainly weaken the ISIS but it is doubtful whether without committing ground troops this strategy will succeed in preventing the extremists from controlling territory and continuing to terrorize the region. The possibility of a backlash against the West, particularly the U.S., UK and France is still a cause for concern. 

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

       

       

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