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  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
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  • Affiliation : Embassy of Sri Lanka to the Russian Federation
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2815 points. Tolipov, Jayatilleka comment events of the week.

05.11.2014

MOSCOW, NOVEMBER 5, 2014. PIR PRESS “Events in Ukraine have had indirect impact on the security situation in Central Asia. There are speculation and alarmist theories on the possibility of similar events in the republics of the region. The weakening of the already shaky foundations of the CIS due to Ukrainian events and absence of Petro Poroshenko from the Commonwealth summit in Minsk strengthened those tensions”, – Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon" ("Caravan of knowledge"), Farhad Tolipov.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of October 27 – November 3, 2014, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2815 points. In Burkina Faso, intention of the President Blaise Compaore to run for another term sparked mass protests; President resigned, the power in the country passed to the military. Israel closed the access to the Temple Mount for the believers and began the construction of new settlements in Jerusalem. The United States continued to launce strikes against the Islamists in Syria and Iraq. Turkey allowed the transit of the Kurdish troops through its territory. In Nigeria, militants of Boko Haram captured the city of Mubi. In eastern Ukraine, self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics held elections; The EU and the US did not recognize the legitimacy of the elections. Russia and Ukraine agreed on the price of gas until the end of current year.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Farhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon"("Caravan of knowledge") – by e-mail from Tashkent: Events in Ukraine have had indirect impact on the security situation in Central Asia. There are speculation and alarmist theories on the possibility of similar events in the republics of the region. The weakening of the already shaky foundations of the CIS due to Ukrainian events and absence of Petro Poroshenko from the Commonwealth summit in Minsk strengthened those tensions.

Inside Central Asia, occurred skirmishes on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which had a negative impact on regional security.

The strengthening of positions of the Islamic state in the Middle East and North Africa and the possible implications of this disturbing trend rose anxiety in the Central Asia. Discussion on the prematurity of the withdrawal of international coalition from Afghanistan began; there is growing concern in the capitals of the countries of the region over the development of the situation in Afghanistan after 2014.

Among the positive trends of the period should be mentioned a meeting of the Presidents of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan during the SCO summit in Dushanbe. This gave some hope to the warming of relations between the two states. Uzbek-Turkmen relations are gaining momentum. In October, President Islam Karimov again visited Turkmenistan. These meeting became regularly (once a year), which allows to evaluate the relationship as stable and friendly.

Dayan Jayatilleka (Sri Lanka), Ambassador, former Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Colombo – by e-mail from Colombo: A long war has begun in the Middle East theatre, involving several powers, regional and extra regional, against ISIS. This war cuts across national boundaries; it is open-ended, has no clear endgame and could have serious negative consequences for world order and stability. The situation may change negatively because West is making a cardinal error in seeking to fight a hot war against non-state/trans-state terrorism and a Cold war against Russia and Syria, at the same time. To give a concrete example there would be pressures for the West to move militarily against the Syrian government. 

In South Asia, the early signs and hopes of rapprochement between the two nuclear neighbors Pakistan and India, which were manifested during Sharif-Modi meeting, have all but evaporated with internal political developments within Pakistan and the perception that the anti-rapprochement Pakistani military has manipulated elements of the domestic opposition into placing Prime Minister Sharif on the defensive.

The continued ascendancy of India's new leader, and the skillful multi-polar balance he maintains between the USA, China, Russia and BRICS, is a major positive factor.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

       

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