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  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
  • Affiliation : Director of OSCE Academy
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International Security Index iSi decreased to 2795 points. Dunay, Tolipov comment events of the week

25.11.2014

MOSCOW, NOVEMBER 25, 2014. PIR PRESS – “The west and Russia have made some efforts to avoid a spill-over to certain global threats and risks. However, this has remained somewhat inconsistent. Cooperation has been retained in countering terrorism, whereas Russia has suspended its participation in the preparation of the fourth nuclear security summit”, – Director of OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Dr. Pal Dunay.

During the week of November 17-24, 2014, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2795 points. In Ukraine, the five parliamentary parties formed a coalition government. In Donetsk, due to the shelling, several mines ceased functioning, and  water and gas shortages arose. Iran and the six international mediators on the next round of talks failed to reach a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program; the talks were extended until June 30, 2015. Clashes between Arabs and Israeli police renewed in the refugee camp in Jerusalem. In Syria, rebels opened fire on Damascus. The USA Air Force and its allies delivered more than 30 attacks on Islamist positions in Syria and Iraq. In Libya, near Tripoli there was fire on positions of radical groups. Anti-government demonstrations took place in Hong Kong, India, Ivory Coast, Thailand and Czech Republic. In China and Japan, occurred a great earthquake; casualties resulted.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Pál Dunay, (Hungary), Director of OSCE Academy in Bishkek - via e-mail from Bishkek: The global and regional security situation has become unstable, causing OSCE concern to increase. The continuation of the Ukraine – Russia military conflict also has global repercussions, though the West and Russia have made some efforts to avoid a spillover to certain global threats and risks. However, this has remained somewhat inconsistent. Cooperation in countering terrorism has been maintained, whereas Russia has suspended its participation in the preparation for the fourth nuclear security summit.

A few intermittent indications of an improved international security situation are the only form of compensation seen for the overwhelmingly disadvantageous developments. Among others, the cease-fire agreement between Ukraine and the Donbass separatist forces in early-September 2014 carried the promise of potential improvement. However, the cease-fire has remained fragile and temporary.

The global situation has deteriorated due to Iraq’s increasingly apparent failing status, the unresolved conflict in Syria that makes the operation of non-state actors and terrorist groups on its territory possible, and Libya’s continuously non-consolidated status. Intensification of the violence between the Palestinians and Israel is also an aggravating factor.

Farhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) - Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon"("Caravan of knowledge”) - via phone from Tashkent: In recent days, the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov paid an official visit to Kazakhstan. This meeting was not the usual comparing notes, but an attempt by the parties to deepen bilateral relations. Bilateral trade between the countries reached $ 3 billion. In June 2013 during a visit to Tashkent Nazarbayev signed an unprecedented agreement on strategic partnership between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. It was a timely, strong message from the two presidents to the world community about the depth and strength of relations, which is extremely important in light of the general instability in the post-Soviet space. However, strategic partnership imposes respective obligations and responsibilities.

Parties discussed the Ukrainian crisis, the situation in Afghanistan after 2014 and the launching of the Eurasian Union, and discussed regional issues and the state of affairs in Central Asia. They also likely discussed the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in Uzbekistan. Bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will undoubtedly continue to strengthen. It is important to ensure that, together, these two states have been able to revive the regional structures of Central Asia. However, for this we need new political will.  

For all questions concerning the International Security Index, please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org   

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