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  • Affiliation : Senior Associate, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, Johns Hopkins University
  • Affiliation : Chairman and Founder, Gulf Research Center, President of Sager Group Holding
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2808 points. Karaveli, Sager comment events of the week

16.12.2014

MOSCOW, DECEMBER 16, 2014. PIR PRESS “Had the ISIS won in Kobane, the effects would have been catastrophic in Turkey: it would have ignited a popular Kurdish rebellion against the Erdogan regime which would have been held accountable for the fall of Kobane to ISIS by the Kurds of Turkey. Kobane stands as the symbol of the rise and empowerment of the Kurds in the Middle East, and its effects are going to reverberate in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran in the coming years”, – Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, Halil Karaveli.  

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of December 7 – 15, 2014, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2808 points. In the southeast of Ukraine, a truce agreed between representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics and Ukrainian military came into force. The USA Senate passed a bill that increased sanctions against Russia provided Ukraine with military support. In Syria, the army repelled the attack of Islamists against the military airfield in Deir ez-Zor; rebel groups have agreed to create a united “Coalition of the Southern Front” against the forces of Bashar al-Assad. In Iraq and Libya took place fighting against militant group "Islamic State". Terrorist attacks occurred in Afghanistan, Nigeria, the Philippines and Greece. In the US, protests against racial discrimination by the police continued.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Halil Karaveli (Turkey-Sweden) – Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center – by e-mail from Stockholm: The most important event of the period was the siege of Kobane in northern Syria, and the successful resistance of the Kurds there. The attack of the Islamic state, which tried to capture Kobani, eventually failed; that has effectively checked the rising power of ISIS. The siege of Kobane also revealed how deeply implicated Turkey is in the Syrian civil war, as it has been indirectly supporting the Islamists, and refusing to take any action against ISIS and denying the U.S. the use of its airbases against the forces of the caliphate. Had the ISIS won in Kobane, the effects would have been catastrophic in Turkey: it would have ignited a popular Kurdish rebellion against the Erdogan regime, which would have been held accountable for the fall of Kobane to ISIS by the Kurds of Turkey. Kobane stands as the symbol of the rise and empowerment of the Kurds in the Middle East, and its effects are going to reverberate in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran in the coming years.

Abdulaziz Sager (Saudi Arabia) – Chairman and Founder of the Gulf Research Center, President of Sager Group Holding – by e-mail from Dubai: The inability of the broader international community to agree on a common policy towards Syria in order to bring about a resolution to this crisis has been the most important factor impacting security given the tremendous impact that the implosion of the Syrian state holds for the entire Middle Eastern region and beyond. The emergence of the Islamic State is, for example, a direct result of the inability to move forward on the Syrian issue and as a result, one witnesses a wide range of radicalization that has also brought back the United States militarily into the region. Furthermore, these are not the developments, which can remain contained given that thousands of foreign fighters, including many from Western countries, have flocked into the mostly lawless regions of Iraq and Syria to join the fight.

In 2015 radicalization of youth will be the main issue that threatens the security situation in the Middle East.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org      

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