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  • Affiliation : Director, Bylim Karvoni Nongovernental Research and Training Center
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International Security Index iSi decreased to 2798 points. Tolipov, Eggert comment events of the week

23.12.2014

MOSCOW, DECEMBER 23, 2014. PIR PRESS “After the withdrawal of the majority of ISAF troops from Afghanistan and the election of a new president Ashraf Ghani, new military and political situation has started to form in the country. To certain extent, this uncertainty is alarming for the Central Asian republics. Intra-regional agenda in 2015 will be determined by the rapid institutionalization of the Eurasian Union, which has already resulted in freezing the discussions on Central Asian integration as a tool for solving the regional problems”,   Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon" ("Caravan of knowledge") Farhad Tolipov.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of December 15 – 22, 2014, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2798 points. In Australia, a native of Iran captured 40 hostages in a cafe; as a result of the police assault the invader was killed, there were victims. In Pakistan, the Taliban attacked a school and shot 126 people; most of the dead were children. In Afghanistan, there were fierce fighting between the Taliban and the army. In Syria and Iraq fighting with the Islamic State continued. Israel responded with airstrikes to the Hamas attacks in the south of the country. In Ukraine, the government and representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics failed to agree on the date of a new round of Minsk talks. Russian ruble has sharply declined against the dollar and the euro. USA and Cuba have started talks on the normalization of diplomatic relations absent since 1961.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Farhad Tolipov (Uzbekistan) – Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon" ("Caravan of knowledge") - by phone from Tashkent: For Central Asia 2014 was a rather gloom year. Uzbekistan was preparing for parliamentary and presidential elections throughout the 2014. After the elections, new political process will start in the country. This will affect the security situation of the whole of Central Asia.

After the withdrawal of the majority of ISAF troops from Afghanistan and the election of a new president Ashraf Ghani, new military and political situation has started to form in the country. To certain extent, this uncertainty is alarming for the Central Asian republics. Intra-regional agenda in 2015 will be determined by the rapid institutionalization of the Eurasian Union, which has already resulted in freezing the discussions on Central Asian integration as a tool for solving the regional problems.

Konstantin von Eggert (Russia), Member, Royal Institute of International Relations, journalist - by phone from Moscow: Ukrainian revolution and the following conflict between Russia and Ukraine became the main European event of 2014. I do not exclude that in the upcoming year a direct military confrontation between Moscow and Kiev may occur. Neither could be excluded a new aggravation of relations between Russia and Moldova or Georgia.

Problems in the Russian economy will have a profound impact on domestic and foreign policy. Internal politics will focus on creation of a new legitimacy for the current system of governance. Further actions to neutralize civil activism, online activism and opposition parties will be taken. Foreign policy will be subordinated to the internal issues, namely to the preservation of the current political system in Russia.

In the 2015 in the world will face the threat of terrorism, radical extremism, as well as a dramatic increase in competition in the global energy markets.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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