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  • Affiliation : Associate Professor, Department of World Politics, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
  • Position : Head of the Peace and Conflict Studies Unit
  • Affiliation : Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences
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The Islamist Threat to Central Asia: Afghanistan and the Global Context

26.02.2015

MOSCOW, FEBRUARY 26, 2015. PIR PRESS. “It is especially important for those interested in peace in Central Asia to demonstrate willingness and ability to make a sharp rebuff of any manifestations of instability. It is critical to state that opening a new front of global jihad and of global war on terrorism in Central Asia will not succeed; the countries of the region will not allow it. However, such a message can only be made convincing and effective by, first, actually realizing the entirety of the imminent danger in the region and by, secondly, using combined forces,” Associate Professor of MGIMO University of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Ivan Safranchuk.

In the second half of the 20th century, The Front for the Fight for Islamic Faith and Values appeared in the world. This international movement is ready to participate in essentially any regional or local conflict. The Front for the Fight for Islamic Faith and Values is interested in a permanent state of war. As paradoxical as it seems, even after the many conflicts in which the warriors for faith at times experienced tangible losses, their numbers are not decreasing, rather with every conflict their numbers multiply. Therefore, from conflict to conflict The Front for the Fight for Islamic Faith and Values grows stronger,” says Associate Professor of MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Ivan Safranchuk.

According to Ivan Safranchuk, “the intensity of the Afghan direction of the global war on terrorism is lowering. The Afghan front is continually closing. A new hot spot is bound to appear. A serious political battle is unraveling around the choice of a new place for a battlefield. It certainly appears that the USA and its western allies who have been playing a major role in the fight against the Front of warriors for Islam for 13 years have decided to no longer play such an active role. In other words, Islamists need to find a new sparring-partner. Consequently, a geographic point is needed where a strong regional player could be found that, during an intensifying local conflict, would be obligated and able to take upon itself the burden of directing the conflict. This could be Northern or Easter Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China, and maybe even Central Asia.”

“It is especially important for those interested in peace in Central Asia to demonstrate willingness and ability to make a sharp rebuff of any manifestations of instability. It is critical to state that opening a new front of global jihad and of global war on terrorism in Central Asia will not succeed; the countries of the region will not allow it. However, such a message can only be made convincing and effective by, first, actually realizing the entirety of the imminent danger in the region and by, secondly, using combined forces,” sums up Ivan Safranchuk.

The article entitled “The Islamist Threat to Central Asia: Afghanistan and the Global Context” was published in the journal Security Index, N.4 (111), Winter 2014 and is available on the PIR Center website (in Russian).

An article by a member of the PIR Center Executive Board, Ekaterina StepanovaThe main trends in modern terrorism:  regionalization of the armed radical Islamist movements, an example of ISIS” (in Russian) was also published in the issue.

Additional information about publications and subscription to the  Security Index journal and information on advertising  is availiable by phone at +7 (495) 987 1915 or by fax at +7 (495) 987 1914.

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