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13.11.2014

“Successful negotiation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program could cause deep changes in the Middle East. Iran can return to the role it played in the 1960s and 1970s, before the fall of the Shah’s regime. Less rapid and profound will be the shifts in the global energy market. In the current decade, Iran will not turn into an energy superpower. However, if the Iranian elite finally manages to remove obstacles to massive foreign investment, the export of Iranian oil and gas by the end of the decade can, by more or less realistic estimates, grow to 3 million barrels per day and 50-60 billion cubic meters per year, respectively,” – Yuri Fedorov, Member of the Security Index Editorial Board.

07.11.2014

“Thus far, the Middle East has answered new challenges with old methods. US airstrikes allowed to halt the triumphant offensive of the “Islamic State” in Iraq and strengthened the positions of government troops and the Kurdish militia. However, it is obvious that one air offensive will not win the battle. The Gulf States start understanding this as well. On the sidelines of the conference in Riyadh as well as during the presentations the voices of those who believe that, despite all of the differences, it is necessary to agree on joint action with Turkey, Iran and Russia were clearly heard,” – Andrey Baklitskiy, PIR Center’s " Nuclear Nonproliferation and Russia " Program Director.

05.11.2014

Events in Ukraine have had indirect impact on the security situation in Central Asia. There are speculation and alarmist theories on the possibility of similar events in the republics of the region. The weakening of the already shaky foundations of the CIS due to Ukrainian events and absence of Petro Poroshenko from the Commonwealth summit in Minsk strengthened those tensions”, – Director of the private research and educational center "Bilim Karvon" ("Caravan of knowledge"), Farhad Tolipov.

28.10.2014

“The security situation will most likely deteriorate over the winter of 2014. Not excluded is the fact that after the parliamentary elections in Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko will make another attempt to solve the crisis in Donbas militarily. This will lead to a resumption of hostilities in the region with unpredictable results and will provoke further deterioration of Russia's relations with the West”, – PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Ret.), Evgeny Buzhinsky.

21.10.2014

“In winter 2014 I expect the security situation to get worse. By the time the campaign against Islamic State is over we will see the group becoming active and stronger outside Syria and Iraq just like Al-Qaeda before. Libya will become hub for terrorism and its transition will become even more complicated than it has been. The USA might find itself sucked into an endless conflict in the region and light as well decide to go back to Iraq under whatever pretext”, - Independent Libyan Academic, Journalist, Mustafa Fetouri.

14.10.2014

“Deterioration of US-Russian relations led to the situation where Moscow did not become an ally of Washington in the fight against the Islamic state, despite the fact that the Islamists pose bigger threat to Russia than to America. The fact that the Kremlin ignores anti-ISIS coalition creates a particular problem for the Americans, reducing their ability to influence the situation in the Middle East and Northern Africa”, – President of the Center on Global Interests, Nikolai Zlobin.

       
07.10.2014

“The USA’s readiness to use military force against ISIS is a good first step. However, military action alone will not solve this issue and there is need for a much broader strategic approach, which, so far, remains absent from the US strategy. There is no clear indication of plans for the day after”, - Chairman and Founder of the Gulf Research Center, Abdulaziz Sager.

       

30.09.2014

“The strategy announced by the USA on fighting with the Islamists is piecemeal and will not lead to the destruction of the Islamic state. The basis of the strategy is that Americans rely on one terrorist group to fight a similar one and are also training the third terrorist group . The main, open-ended question is whether the United States will strike at Bashar al-Assad’s troops in Syria”, – President of the Institute of Middle East Studies, Evgeny Satanovsky.    

09.09.2014

“This is the moment when the EU will regret that in spite of business logic to support the building of the Nabucco pipeline it did not go for it.  This regret may be shared by countries that could have supplied Nabucco and now face a near monopolistic poisition of some other partners, like Turkmenistan with respect of China. Other major exporters (like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan) have also given up on their hope to rely on supply in the western direction and diversified their export between the North (Russia) and the East”, – Director of OSCE Academy in Bishkek Pál Dunay.

02.09.2014

“Erdogan's Achilles' heel is however the economy; his success ultimately rests on the fact that the economy has improved for the majority; Turkey is however living on foreign loans that have financed the massive rise in internal consumption. This is not a sustainable economic model; it is a bubble that will burst, and when that happens there will inevitably be political consequences for Erdogan's regime”, – Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, Halil Karaveli.

 
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