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“The new detente between the governments of India and Pakistan has been positive. The attacks by the Pakistani Taliban and the counteroffensive by the Pakistani armed forces may mean a reduction in the gap between Indian and Pakistani threat perceptions with regards to Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. This may make a joint approach feasible”, – former Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Colombo, Amb. Dayan Jayatilleka.


International Security Index iSi as of July 1, 2014 reached 2767 points, which is 9 points lower than the previous month. Decrease of iSi is associated with continuing crisis in the Ukraine, a sharp aggravation of the military-political situation in Iraq, instability in other countries of the Middle East.


“Today we are seeing the disintegration of Iraq as a state, and this has a terrible effect on the security climate of the Middle East. We now face the very real prospect that radical Sunni Islamist militias are going to be in control of large swathes of territory in Iraq as well as in Syria – the heart of the Middle East – and territory in proximity to the border with Europe. This is going to pose a security threat not only to countries in the region like Turkey, but potentially to European countries as well”, - Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, Halil Karaveli.


“Successful presidential elections in Afghanistan contributed a positive development to South Asian regional security. Those in India anticipate from the new President effective work towards stabilizing the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA). We hope that the new Afghan authorities will find their own way out of the complicated situation that afflicts their country and lessen the influence of the Afghanistan factor on the rest of South Asian security.  Most importantly, we hope that Afghanistan will cease to be a gathering point for terrorists and will begin to conduct peaceful policies”, – Vice President, Observer Research Foundation Nandan Unnikrishnan.  


“The level of security remains the same in the United States. Americans conducted a thorough analysis of the threats the country faces today. A better understanding of existing threats has appeared; the political establishment has become more aware of the nature of the threats’ operations and structure. In this sense, the security level actually increased, despite the fact that the level and severity of threat remained the same”, – President of the Center on Global Interests, Nikolai Zlobin.


“Bashar Assad was reelected as the President of Syria. Foreign intervention after the election remains an option, but it definitely would be a costly one. The task of organizing such intervention stands before Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. The position of the West will depend on the final cost-benefit analysis. Iran will continue providing Assad with military and political supports, Russia and China will stand by Syria at the UN”, – President of the Institute of Middle East Studies Evgeny Satanovsky. 


“In my opinion, we will witness a decade of bad relations between Russia and the United States and Russia and the West in general. In the short term there are no factors that could have a positive impact on this relationship. In fact, the deterioration is just beginning, but the depth, sharpness and the scope of the process is not yet known to us. The current US administration is unlikely to work on improving the US-Russian relations, because it is completely unnecessary for them. The next administration in Washington will grandfather the damaged relationships and I think it will have a good chance to continue to worsen them. The same, however, is true for the Russian side”, – President of the Center on global interests, Nikolai Zlobin.


“As a result of the current Ukrainian crisis Budapest Memorandum of 1994 – Memorandum of non-nuclear status of Ukraine and security guarantees in connection with the accession of the country to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, signed between Ukraine and the USA, Russia and Britain – remained nothing more than a piece of paper with no value. Proliferation risks are increasing, especially for the so-called threshold countries”, - Member, Royal Institute of International Relations, journalist Konstantin von Eggert.


“There is no clarity, what are the views of Narendra Modi on the foreign policy. But obviously, a large set of domestic issues was accumulated, which must be solved by new leadership in the next two to three years. Those include problems of economy, the social sphere, and politics. Internal agenda of the new prime minister promises to be very intense”, – Vice President, Observer Research Foundation Nandan Unnikrishnan. 


“The elections results have made it more likely that Erdogan is going to present himself as a candidate for the presidency. The big question is if a candidate with a serious chance of denying Erdogan the presidency will present himself; recently, the chief justice of the Constitutional Court has emerged as a contender. Hasim Kilic is a religious conservative like Erdogan, and he would enjoy the support of the Gülenists, but it is unlikely that he would win against Erdogan, if the latter is indeed a candidate”, – Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, Halil Karaveli.