Chronology

U.S. President G.W. Bush states that the U.S. will withdrawal from the 1972 ABM Treaty in six months
13.12.2001

International Security Index iSi

PIR PRESS LOGO

PIR PRESS NEWS

08.12.2017

“Internship at the PIR Center was very beneficial in many ways. On professional level, I was challenged every day and learned much about Russian policies, interests and perspectives on various security questions. This opportunity gave me a real taste of what working in an efficient think tank is. On a personal level, working for the PIR has pushed me outside my comfort zone into a completely unknown environment. But despite my limited skills in Russian, I had the feeling of being completely accepted and integrated in the team. All in all, my only regret will be the short term of my internship!”

08.12.2017

“In the current highly politicized climate, the initiative for the International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Chemical and Biological Terrorism may have a higher chance of succeeding if it transitions away from the usage of terrorist for non-state actor. Not only will it streamline the international legal framework by limiting the terminology to state and non-state actor, it will circumvent the necessity to provide a definition for terrorism”, –  Alicia Rorabaugh, PIR Center’s intern and student of the Dual Degree Master Program in Nonproliferation Studies

02.12.2017

“There is a proposal to start research and development [on a missile prohibited under the INF Treaty]. It is not prohibited according to the Treaty, but it seems to be the first step of violation of the soul of the Treaty. […] For us, this is an indication that activities to create a new missile violating the Treaty are going on. The United States is engaged in preparatory work to withdraw from the Treaty. We consider this to be a mistake. We have offered the United States to sit together and discuss all issues of mutual concern, find solutions to these issues, and avoid making efforts provoking the other side to give an adequate answer,” — Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the United States of America.

Regional challenges to WMD Nonproliferation

«Regional challenges to WMD Nonproliferation»

 

(2 credits)

The course program developed by Dr. Ivan A. Safranchuk and Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov, 2017.

The course instructors: Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov, Dr. Ivan A. Safranchuk, Amb. Vyacheslav Trubnikov, Dr. Alexander V. Vorontsov, Dr. Ildar Akhtamzyan, Dr. Pyotr Topychkanov.

 

1. Course description

1.1 The place and role of the course in the program of study:

 The course “Regional challenges to WMD Nonproliferation” aims at providing students with a comprehensive vision of the current regional challenges to the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). 

WMD nonproliferation regime covers nuclear, chemical and biological weapons; its legal base is formed by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

Despite the global nature of the regime, the interests and actions of particular nation states support or undermine the WMD nonproliferation in different parts of the world.  With WMD still seen as a viable means of deterrence, possession of this kind of weapons often triggered “domino effects”, when neighboring states tried to balance the capabilities of their peers symmetrically or asymmetrically. Such regional systems, covering several states and invoking different types of WMD, proved extremely difficult to dismantle.

The course will provide knowledge and discussion on key modern challenges to WMD nonproliferation in regional context.

1.2 The course objectives:

 

The main goal of the course is to provide students with basic knowledge of the regional aspects of the WMD nonproliferation, including: 

  • To introduce basic definitions, concepts, history, current state and institutional structure of WMD nonproliferation regime in the regional context.
  • To provide students with the overview of the main regions of concern from the nonproliferation point of view and the case studies of national WMD programs.
  • To orient students to understand the interconnection between the WMD programs of the countries of the region, regional and global security.
  • To provide students with methodology of analysis of the regional WMD proliferation risks.  

 1.3 Learning outcomes:

Classes are generally held to provide information and methodology necessary for independent analysis and discussion on the covered topics.

Teaching methods used include lectures, consultations, seminars, discussions and students’ seminar presentations.

By the end of this course, students should be able to:

  1. Identify main regions of concern from the WMD nonproliferation point of view, key countries involved and the most pressing issues.
  2. Understand the interconnection between national WMD programs in the regional setting, regional and global security situation.
  3. Assess the possibilities to counter the WMD proliferation in the South Asia, East Asia and the Middle East.
  4. Analyze the prospects for regional WMD disarmament.
  5. Search information and literature on WMD nonproliferation issues; distinguish between authoritative and unreliable sources.

1.4 Grading and Requirements:

Students are required:

 

  • to attend at least 90% of classes (10% of the final grading)
  • be prepared to participate in class discussions, in particular on the readings (25% of the final grading)
  • to give one oral presentation with power-point slides (25% of the final grading).

A topic for oral presentation can be chosen by a student with the following limitations. It should correlate with one of the course six topics and the major topic for the seminar, where the presentation is scheduled (topic 1 for seminar 4, topic 5 for seminar 5, topic 2 for seminar 1, topic 3 for seminar 2, topic 4 for seminar 3). There should be no less than one and no more than two presentations at seminars 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Students are encouraged to discuss between themselves distribution of presentations in accordance with these limitations. In cases when there will be unresolved conflicts on redistribution of topics the course director will assign topics to students.

Final test will constitute 40% of the final grading

1.5 Course Texts:

Required text is Kurt Campbell, Robert Einhorn, and Mitchell Reiss (eds.) The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004.

Other required reading consists of journal articles, book chapters, reports, and official government statements and documents. These readings are attributed to five topics of the course. Most of these readings are easily accessible online. When possible, links are included on the syllabus.

2. Course outline and schedule

2.2 Course schedule

 

TOPIC 1. NON-PROLIFERATION AT THE CROSS ROAD OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL POLITICS

October 12, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Lecture 1: Introduction to the course and historic overview of global and regional dynamics in proliferation of WMD.

Dr. Ivan A. Safranchuk

Summary: The subject, goals and objectives of the course. Historic cases of WMD considerations and decisions: Europe, Middle East, Latin America, Far East, South Asia, Africa. Solutions to the non-proliferation risks of the Soviet Union disintegration. Non-proliferation at the end of the Cold War: globalization of the NPT, regional opportunities and challenges to WMD proliferation. Classification of proliferators and phenomenon of threshold states. Proliferation vs. non-proliferation calculus and regional conflicts.

 

Essential Readings

The Nuclear Tipping Point: Prospects for a World of Many Nuclear Weapon States in Kurt Campbell, Robert Einhorn, and Mitchell Reiss (eds.) The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004. pp.3-17

Vladimir Orlov, Roland Timerbaev Russia's Neighbors in the CIS in “Nuclear Nonproliferation in U.S.-Russian Relations: Challenges and Opportunities”. PIR Library Series, 2002. Pp. 22-33.

 

General Readings

Agreement between the Republic of Argentina and the Federative Republic of Brazil for the exclusively peaceful use of nuclear energy, 1991

F. W. de Klerk, President of South Africa. Extract of a speech announcing developments relating to South Africa’s nuclear capability, the normalization of international relations and accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 1993

David Albright. South Africa and the Affordable Bomb. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Issue 4, 1994.

John R. Redick , Julio C. Carasales & Paulo S. Wrobel. Nuclear rapprochement: Argentina, Brazil, and the nonproliferation regime, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 1995.

Jurg Stussi-Lauterberg. Historical outline on the question of Swiss nuclear armament. December 31, 1995.

Ядерное нераспространение: Краткая энциклопедия. М.: Российская политическая энциклопедия (РОССПЭН); ПИР-Центр, 2009

October 12, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

Lecture 2: Regional instruments of nuclear non-proliferation

Dr. Ildar Akhtamzyan

Summary: Concept of territories free of nuclear weapons. Regional nonproliferation treaties before and after the NPT. Treaty of Tlatelolco (1967), Rarotonga (1985), Bangkok (1995), Pelindaba (1996), Treaty on Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia (2006).

Essential Readings

Antarctic Treaty. Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty.

Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean. United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.

South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty. United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.

Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone. United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.

African Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty (Treaty of Pelindaba). United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.  

Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia (CANWFZ). United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs. 

 

General Readings

The Bangkok Treaty Protocol: Why still not Signed by P5? Alexander Kolbin. Security Index. Vol. 19, Iss. 4, 2013.

Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones. Disarmament Forum, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), no.2, 2011.

Ildar Akhtamzyan. Nuclear-Weapon-free Zones in the Beginning of the XXI Century // Lessons to be Learned from Non-Proliferation Failures and Successes. Edited by Alexander Nikitin. IOS Press: Amsterdam, Berlin, Oxford, Tokyo, Washington D.C., 2009. 38-52 pp

Central Asia: S.O.S. for Nuclear Zero. Nikolay Sokov. Security Index Iss. 3, 2008.

 

Web resources

Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones. United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.

 

TOPIC 2. WMD NONPROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

October 19, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Lecture 3: WMD Proliferation in the Middle East

Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov

Summary: History and contemporary review of the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Israel as the only state in the region with nuclear weapons. Cases of Egypt; Israel; Iraq; Libya; Syria; Turkey. Motivations for regional state actors for development of their WMD programs. Role of non-state actors in the region with regard to WMD proliferation and terrorism.

 

Essential Readings

Ten Steps Toward a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East. PIR Center, 2013.

 

General readings

Robert J. Einhorn. Egypt: Frustrated but Still on a Non-Nuclear Course in The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004. pp.43-83.

Ellen Laipson. Syria: Can the Myth Be Maintained without Nukes? in The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004. pp.83-111.

Leon Fuerth. Turkey: Nuclear Choices amongst Dangerous Neighbours in The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004. pp.145-175.

Ближний и Средний Восток. Ядерное нераспространение. Под общей редакцией Орлова В.А. М., ПИР-Центр, 2002 (2-е изд., переработанное и расширенное).

Военная ядерная программа Израиля. Ядерное нераспространение: Краткая энциклопедия. ПИР-Центр.

Военная ядерная программа Ирака. Ядерное нераспространение: Краткая энциклопедия. ПИР-Центр.

Военная ядерная программа Ливии. Ядерное нераспространение: Краткая энциклопедия. ПИР-Центр.

Военная ядерная программа Сирии. Ядерное нераспространение: Краткая энциклопедия. ПИР-Центр.

Web resources

Country Profiles. Database. NTI.org

October 19, Thursday.  19.15 – 20.45                       

Lecture 4: Zone Free of Nuclear and other WMD in the Middle East: History of the Issue and Prospects of Establishment.

Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov

Summary: Early proposals (1974) to create a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East (Iran, Egypt). Working group on Arms Control and Regional Security in the Middle East (1992-1995). 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference, Middle East resolution. 2010 NPT Review Conference and the planned 2012 Conference of the WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East. Collapse of the talks. 2015 NPT Review Conference: Middle East Zone issue as the main drama of the conference leading to its failure. Prospects  for establishment of the zone.

 

Essential Readings

Establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region of the Middle East. General Assembly Resolution 33/64. December 14, 1978.

Resolution on the Middle East. The Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. 1995.

Ten Steps Toward a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East. PIR Center, 2013.

Vladimir Orlov.A Nuclear Weapon-Free Middle East: Looking for Solutions. International Affairs, 2011.

 

GeneralReadings

Владимир Орлов. Зона, свободная от ОМУ, на Ближнем Востоке: не откладывать развязок. Международная Жизнь. № 6, 2011, с. 6-21.

Ivan Trushkin. WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: From Ideas to Reality. Security Index Journal. Issue 4, 2011.

Alexander Glaser, Zia Mian, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, and Frank von Hippel. Building on the Iran Deal: Steps Toward a Middle Eastern Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. Arms Control Today. December 2015.

Chen Kane. Planning Ahead: A Blueprint to Negotiate and Implement a Weapon-of-Mass-Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 2015

Effective and Verifiable Measures Which Would Facilitate the Establishment of a Nuclear-weapon-free Zone in the Middle East. UN Department for Disarmament Affairs. New York, 1991.

 

Web resources

Middle East WMDFZ. EU Non-Proliferation Consortium.

2012 Conference on the Middle East Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction - Searching for Solutions 04.10.2012. PIR Center

October 26, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Lecture 5: Iran’s Nuclear Program and JCPOA: a case study of addressing proliferation through diplomacy.

Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov

Summary: The roots of Iranian nuclear program from the Shah to the Iran-Iraq war. Peaceful nuclear developments in Iran. Clandestine nuclear program. Iranian dossier at the IAEA and the UN Security Council. Informal discussions and negotiations over the Iranian nuclear issue (2012-2015). Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (2015). JCPOA sustainability.

Essential Readings

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, agreed by Iran and P5+1, Vienna, July 14, 2015

Vladimir Orlov. A Labyrinth with No Walls. Russia in Global Affairs. March 25, 2012.

GRF International Task Force on the Future of the Nuclear Deal with Iran. Declaration on the JCPOA. March 17, 2017

 

General Readings

David E. Sanger, Michael R. Gordon. An Iran Nuclear Deal Built on Coffee, All-Nighters and Compromise. The New York Times. April 3, 2015.

Andrey Baklitskiy, Richard Weitz. The Iranian Deal: Opportunities and Obstacles for Russian-US Cooperation. Valdai Paper #46. April 28, 2016.

Alexey Arbatov, Vladimir Sazhin. The Nuclear Deal with Iran: The Final Step or a New Stage? Carnegie Moscow Center. April 20, 2016.

Joint Plan of Action. Geneva, November 24, 2013.

 

Web resources

Iranian Nuclear Program: Russia’s Interests. PIR Center.

Iranian Nuclear Problem. Carnegie Moscow Center.

October 26, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

Seminar 1. Major Contemporary WMD Proliferation Concerns in the Middle East. This seminar will cover topic 2. Two students deliver power-point presentations. All students are required to be prepared for class discussion, including on the readings for topic 2.

Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov

TOPIC 3. WMD NONPROLIFERATION IN THE SOUTH ASIA

November 2, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Lecture 6: Indian nuclear program: a case study of weaponization of civilian infrastructure.

Dr. Pyotr Topychkanov

Summary: Political, security and economic backgrounds for the military nuclear program of India. The course of the program from the beginning up to 1998. Indian efforts to build the nuclear arsenal tailor the nuclear doctrine. Way off the isolation: U.S.-Indian deal, IAEA agreement, attempts to get in NSG. The current role and future of the nuclear arsenal and doctrine of India. Nuclear security and safety in India.

Essential Readings

Deterrence Instability & Nuclear Weapons in South Asia. Edited by Michael Krepon, Joshua T. White, Julia Thompson, Shane Mason. - Washington: Stimpson Center, 2015.

Prospects of Engaging India and Pakistan in Nuclear Arms Limitations. Edited by Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev. – Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2012.

Topychkanov Petr. Experience of India and Pakistan Creating Nuclear Weapons,’ in V.Kantor (ed.) The Limits of Secure Nuclear Tolerance (Moscow: International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, 2014), pp. 112-122.

 

General Readings

Ashley J. Tellis, India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrence and Ready Arsenal (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 2001)

Rajagopalan R. Second Strike: Arguments about Nuclear War in South Asia. New Delhi: Penguin Books, 2005

Talbott, S. Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy, and the Bomb. New Delhi: Penguin Books, 2004

Zafar Iqbal Cheema, Indian Nuclear Deterrence: Its Evolution, Development, and Implication for South Asian Security (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2010)

 

Web resources

Kristensen Hans M., Norris Robert S. Indian nuclear forces, 2017.

NTI: India. 2017.

Perkovich George, Dalton Toby. India’s Nuclear Options and Escalation Dominance. 2016.

Perkovich George. Preventing Nuclear War in South Asia: Unprecedented Challenges, Unprecedented Solutions. 2013.

Rehman Iskander. Murky Waters: Naval Nuclear Dynamics in the Indian Ocean. 2015.

November 2, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

Lecture 7: Pakistani nuclear program: catching-up with the neighbor.

Dr. Pyotr Topychkanov

Summary: Political, security and economic backgrounds for the military nuclear program of Pakistan. The course of the program from the beginning up to 1998. Pakistan efforts to build the nuclear arsenal tailor the nuclear doctrine. AQ Khan network: Pakistan’s episode or policy? Attempts to end with the isolation. The current role and future of the nuclear arsenal and doctrine of Pakistan. Nuclear security and safety in Pakistan.

 

Essential Readings

Deterrence Instability & Nuclear Weapons in South Asia. Edited by Michael Krepon, Joshua T. White, Julia Thompson, Shane Mason. - Washington: Stimpson Center, 2015.

Prospects of Engaging India and Pakistan in Nuclear Arms Limitations. Edited by Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev. – Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2012.

Topychkanov Petr. Experience of India and Pakistan Creating Nuclear Weapons,’ in V.Kantor (ed.) The Limits of Secure Nuclear Tolerance (Moscow: International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, 2014), pp. 112-122.

 

General Readings

Khan, F.H. “Eating Grass: the Making of the Pakistani Bomb.” Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2012

Justin V. Hastings: The Geography of Nuclear Proliferation Networks, The Nonproliferation Review. No. 3, November 2012.

Naeem Salik, The Genesis of South Asian Nuclear Deterrence: Pakistan’s Perspective (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2009)

Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks. A Net Assessment. Ed. by M. Fitzpatrick. London: The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007

Rajagopalan R. Second Strike: Arguments about Nuclear War in South Asia. New Delhi: Penguin Books, 2005

Zafar Iqbal Cheema, Indian Nuclear Deterrence: Its Evolution, Development, and Implication for South Asian Security (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2010)

 

Web resources

Kristensen Hans M., Norris Robert S. Pakistani nuclear forces, 2016

Michael Krepon. A Normal Nuclear Pakistan. 2015.

NTI: Pakistan. 2017 (http://www.nti.org/learn/countries/pakistan/)

November 9, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Lecture 8: Nuclear Weapons in South Asia: strategic balances and political dilemmas.

Gen. Vyacheslav I. Trubnikov

Summary: Bilateral nuclear balances between Pakistan and India, India and China. Regional nuclear triangle China-India-Pakistan. Connections between South Asian nuclear balances and neighboring regions. South Asian nuclear balances and global security.

Essential Readings

Interview with Vyacheslav Trubnikov, member of the directorate of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations // Moscow Defense Brief. - 2016. - No.1(56) ()

Trubnikov Vyacheslav. The Role of Nuclear Status in India‘s and Pakistan‘s Foreign and Domestic Policy. Russia‘s Perspective // Prospects of Engaging India and Pakistan in Nuclear Arms Limitations. Edited by Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev. – Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2012, pp. 11-18

 

General Readings

Evolution of India's nuclear policy. Government of India.

Draft Report of National Security Advisory Board on Indian Nuclear Doctrine. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of India, August 17, 1999.

Paul K. Kerr., Mary Beth Nikitin. Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons. Congressional Research Service, August 1, 2016.

Hall Ian. The Requirements of Nuclear Stability in South Asia. The Nonproliferation review, Vol 21, 2014, pp. 355-371

 

Web resources

Special Report: The Nuclear Crisis – India & Pakistan. AtomicArchive.com

November 9, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

Seminar 2. This seminar will cover topic 3. Two students deliver power-point presentations. All students are required to be prepared for class discussion, including on the readings for topic 3.

Dr. Pyotr Topychkanov

 

November 16, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

 NO LECTURE

Dr. Alexander V. Vorontsov

 

 

November 16, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

 NO LECTURE

Dr. Alexander V. Vorontsov

 

 

November 23, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Lecture 11. Lecture. Nuclear powers initiatives after the Cold War and regional controversies

 Dr. Ivan A. Safranchuk

Summary: After the end of the Cold War great powers’ and IAEA’s views of how to curb nuclear proliferation evolved in response to a number of regional challenges. This evolution includes the following milestones, which essence and impact on regional nuclear politics should be understood: The Additional Protocol, counter-proliferation, PSI, proposals on fuel banks. 

Essential Readings

Mohamed ElBaradei. In Search of Security: Finding An Alternative To Nuclear Deterrence. November 2004.

Cole Harvey. Major Proposals to Strengthen the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Arms Control Association, March 2010.

The Future of Nuclear Power. An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, 2003.

The Bush Proposals: A Global Strategy for Combating the Spread of Nuclear Weapons Technology or a Sanctioned Nuclear Cartel? NTI, November 2004.

Statement on the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy. 26 January 2006.

 

General Readings

Update of the Future of Nuclear Power. An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, 2009.

The Future of Nuclear Fuel Cycle. An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, 2011.

Amitai Etzioni. Tomorrow's Institution Today. The Promise of the Proliferation Security Initiative. Foreign Affairs. May/June 2009.

Henry Sokolski. President Bush’s Global Nonproliferation Policy: Seven More Proposals. Heritage Lectures. April. 2004.

Arms Control Experts Comment on Bush Nonproliferation Proposals. Arms Control Association. February 2004.

Aaron dunne. THE PROLIFERATION SECURITY INITIATIVE. Legal Considerations and Operational Realities. SIPRI Policy Paper, May 2013.

 

Web resources

https://www.iaea.org/topics/additional-protocol

https://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/Proliferation-Security-Initiative/

http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/proliferation-security-initiative-psi/

http://www.psi-online.info/

https://www.state.gov/t/isn/c10390.htm

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/proliferation-security-initiative

https://www.ifnec.org

November 23, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

Seminar 4: This seminar will cover topic 1. Two students deliver power-point presentations. All students are required to be prepared for class discussion, including on the readings for topic 1.

Dr. Ivan A. Safranchuk

 

TOPIC 4. WMD NONPROLIFERATION IN THE NORTH-EASTERN ASIA

November 30, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Lecture 9: WMD program of the DPRK: disarmament and nonproliferation aspects.

Dr. Alexander V. Vorontsov

Summary: DPRK Nuclear Missile program consistent development is one of the most acute challenge to global nonproliferation regime

Essential Readings

Joint Declaration of South and North Korea on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, 1992.

Agreed Framework Between the United States of America and The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Geneva, October 21, 1994.

Korean Central News Agency report on the DPRK’s withdrawal from the NPT, January 22, 2003.

 

General Readings

Squassoni Sharon. DPRK Nuclear Energy in the Context of a Proposed Peace Settlement. 2013.

Westmyer Timothy. Asian Powers Wrestle Over Nuclear Security in Asia. 2014.

Sigal V. Leon. A Nuclear North Korea vs. a Strategically Patient U.S.: Who Wins? 2014.

November 30, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

Lecture 10: DPRK Nuclear Missile Program Rapid Acceleration in last two-thee years.

Dr. Alexander V. Vorontsov

Summary: DPRK nuclear missiles program succeeded to achieve the impressive progress during last two years that changed considerably the USA strategic calculus.

Essential Readings

"North Korea Giving Up Nuclear Arms ‘a Lost Cause,’ Official Says", The New York Times,  October 25, 2016

David S. Maxwell, "A Strategic Strangulation Campaign for North Korea: Is the International Community Ready for What May Come Next?",

 

General Readings

Dmitri Trenin, What’s the U.S.’s Best Chance With North Korea? Russia, 18.09.2017

Three Dimensions: Can North Korea be Contained?, Moscow Carnegie Center, 20.03.17;

November 30, Thursday. 20.55 – 22.25

Lecture 12. Threshold powers of the East Asia region (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan).

Dr. Alexander V. Vorontsov

Summary: Concern dealing with the possibility of nuclearization chain reaction in the region is strong.

 

Essential Readings

 

Hayes Peter, Chung-in Moon. Should South Korea Go Nuclear? EAF Policy Debates, No.7, 2014.

 

Ralph Cossa. Brad Glosserman. Untying North Korean 'nots';  PacNet #17, February 14, 2017.

 

 

 

General Readings

 

Evgeny Buzhinskiy reports from Moscow: (UN)REALISTIC THREATS? DPRK’S AND IRAN’S MISSILE PROGRAMS. Russia Confidential,  Issue № 3 (231), vol.15. March 2016.

 

 

December 7, Thursday. 17.35 – 19.05

Seminar 5: This seminar will cover topic 5. Two students deliver power-point presentations. All students are required to be prepared for class discussion, including on the readings for topic 5.

Dr. Ivan A. Safranchuk

December 7, Thursday. 19.15 – 20.45

Seminar 6: This seminar will review the whole course through the class discussion on regional challenges and opportunities for global non-proliferation regime.

Dr. Ivan A. Safranchuk

loading