“Currently and in the foreseeable future there is no reason to expect a Taliban victory in Afghanistan and the establishment of its power in the north of the country. Accordingly, there is a possibility of a massive invasion from there to Central Asia. Haphazard interventions by small jihadist factions into countries of the region should obviously not be excluded, but they do not constitute the real threat to the ruling regimes and are easily neutralized by their armies. Most likely, rather, the succession crises in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan serve as the only causes of regional destabilization, but to judge their future effects is not possible,” –Security Index journal editorial board member, Yuri Fedorov.
On December 12, 2013 PIR Center’s held Extended Advisory Board meeting – international seminar, organized with support of the NATO Information Office in Moscow
The new issue of Security Index journal offers several predictions for the development of international security. First of all, during the round table "Russia, challenges to its security and answers: expectations for 2014 and reality–2015" Dmitry Trenin, Dmitry Evstafiev, Armen Oganesyan, Vadim Kozyulin and Andrei Suzdaltsev, someone a year ago, someone a little more – have given us their predictions about what threats and challenges Russia will face and how she will react to them. And now in the spring of 2015, they don't just look at their own predictions of that absolutely unpredictable year, but also offer their views in 2015.
“If we are negotiating with the West that does not mean that our position regarding western dominance and interference in the Middle East has changed. Iran is not willing to give up its independent politics for any price. Iran’s eight-year resistance during a forcible war and its firmness in the question of peaceful use of nuclear energy are examples of such an Iranian approach. Resistance and evasion of sanctions are a witness to the independence of Iran. If Iran were to rely on the West, then we could not endure western pressure,” – Seyed Alinaghi (Kamal) Kharrazi, the Head of the Strategic Council of Public Relations under the administration of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Security in Central Asia and Russia
"The key issue of security and development in Central Asia – the harmonization of interests. Given the continuing disagreement among states in the region, it is now more important than ever to establish ongoing dialogue on the basis of a joint assessment of threats. Only then can we really turn towards effective partnership in the field of security".
Gennady Evstafiev, Lieutenant-General (ret.), Member of PIR Center’s Advisory Board
On the one hand the immediate proximity to a region where instability is escalating reveals a number of challenges to international security, on the other hand the region also reveals high energy potential. For this reason Central Asia has become a region of interest and concern for Russia, U.S., EU, China,India, Iran and Pakistan. However, the situation is changing. It is increasingly clear that the goals that were set are unlikely to be achieved without the active involvement of Russian security projects. It is necessary to increase the effectiveness of regional cooperation mechanisms through organizations such as - SCO, CSTO, EurAsEC.
PIR Center’s project "Security in Central Asia and Russia" defines the main vectors of rivalry and cooperation in the region.
The objective of the project is to answer the question of the optimal strategy of behavior of Russia in Central Asia.
PIR Center Analysis
What are the key issues in focus of the agenda of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)? How has the structure and the governance model of the CSTO changed over the recent years, and what new priorities have emerged for its members? These questions also touch upon the evolving approach ...
What is the current disposition of forces in Afghanistan? Are there any prospects for a return to normalcy in the country in the wake of the ISAF drawdown, and how will it affect the security situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia? Why is Washington in such a hurry to pull out large troop numbers...
The future of Afghanistan and Central Asia depends to a very large extent on Washington’s plans for the region, and to a very small extent on the Taliban. Keeping track of the geopolitical thinking in the White House is all the more important because the United States is entering a period of depress...
The Collective Security Treaty was signed on May 15, 1992 for a 5 year term with the possibility of renewal. The obligation initially was signed by most of the former Soviet Union member states, and then Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Moldova joined; so with the exception of the Baltic States, all former So...
May 15, 2012
12 October 2011
December 3, 2010