Хронометр
ПИР-ПРЕСС сообщает
В записке на основе сценарного подхода предлагаются шаги, которые Россия могла бы предпринять в случае прекращения действия ДСНВ. Особое внимание уделяется возможным мерам повышения доверия и односторонним шагам. В документе также рассматривается военно-технический потенциал наращивания СНВ США и России.
«Обстоятельства, в которых сегодня оказался весь мир, изменились, но важность вопросов ядерного нераспространения и российско-американского диалога по обзорному процессу ДНЯО продолжает собирать вместе как молодых, так и опытных экспертов. Я очень рад, что современные технологии нам в этом помогают. Могли ли мы подумать год назад, на прошлой встрече рабочей группы, что Обзорная конференция может быть перенесена? Вряд ли. Но это дает нам – России, США и всему мировому сообществу нераспространенцев – время более творчески подумать о том, как лучше к ней подготовиться. Именно таким – свежим, оригинальным идеям молодого поколения специалистов и посвящены наши встречи в формате «дорожки 2.5», – директор ПИР-Центра, заведующий Центром глобальных проблем и международных организаций ИАМП Дипломатической академии МИД РФ, профессор МГИМО МИД РФ, сопредседатель рабочей группы Владимир Орлов.
"По натуре я – инноватор, мне нужно создавать что-то новое, что будет находить у людей эмоциональный и интеллектуальный отклик", – начальник Управления экспертно-аналитической работы, контроля реализации приоритетных решений и национальных проектов Общероссийского народного фронта Любовь Солдаткина.
Schedule and Readings
Useful websites:
* PIR Center
* Acronym Institute
* Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Nuclear Policy
* International Atomic Energy Agency
* Nuclear Threat Initiative
* The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
* Programme for Promoting Nuclear Non-Proliferation Briefing Book. Volume II: Treaties, Agreements and Other Relevant Documents (Eighth Edition). The Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, University of Southampton
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Lecture topic |
Lecturer |
Date and time |
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International Nonproliferation Regimes and Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty |
Vladimir A. Orlov Advisor, PIR Center |
September 9 (Wednesday) 17:35 – 19:05 |
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WMD Nonproliferation Regimes: Current Threats and Challenges |
September 9 (Wednesday) 19.15 – 20.45 |
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Required literature: * The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons* White Paper: "Towards Nuclear Disarmament: NPT Article VI and Implementation of the 2010 Review Conference Decisions". PIR Center, 2014.Following Up On PIR Center’s Recommendations For Strengthening The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: 2010 – 2015 * White Paper “NPT-2010: Strengthening the Regime”. PIR Center, 2010 Recommended literature: * Nuclear Reset: Arms Reduction and Nonproliferation / Ed. by Alexei. Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin; English version ed. by Natalia Bubnova. Moscow Carnegie Endowment, 2012 * Avner Cohen. Israel and the Bomb. Columbia University Press, 1998 * Gordon Corera. Shopping for Bombs. In Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and Rise and Fall of the A.Q. Khan Network. Oxford University Press, 2006. pp. 241-251. * Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers. Report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. Paragon, Canberra, 2009 * Rebecca Johnson. Unfinished Business: The Negotiation of the CTBT and The End of Nuclear Testing. United Nations Publications, 2009 * Global Trends and the International Non-Proliferation Regime. In Joseph Cirincione, Jon Wolfsthal, Miriam Rajkumar (eds.) Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002. * Vladimir Orlov and Ivan Trushkin. NPT of Tomorrow. Russia in Global Affairs. October 16, 2013 * Vladimir Orlov. Russia's Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy from 1991 to 2011: Twenty Years since the Soviet Union's Collapse, still Soviet. Security Index (International Edition) No. 3 (100), Summer 2012 * William Potter, Charles Ferguson (with Amy Sands, Leonard Spector, and Fred Wehling). The Nuclear Terrorists: Who, Why, and How Capable? In The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism. Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2004 * The Nuclear Tipping Point: Prospects for a World of Many Nuclear Weapon States in Kurt Campbell, Robert Einhorn, and Mitchell Reiss (eds.) The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004. pp.3-17 Web Sources: * PIR Center Project “The Future of the NPT: Shaping Russia’s Position”
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Lecture topic |
Lecturer |
Date and time |
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Preparing for Key Challenges to WMD Proliferation Regime in 2010s
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Vladimir A. Orlov Advisor, PIR Center |
September, 16 (Wednesday) 17:35-19:05 |
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Required literature: * Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers (Synopsis). Report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. Paragon, Canberra, 2009Recommended literature: * Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers. Report of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. Paragon, Canberra, 2009* The Nuclear Tipping Point: Prospects for a World of Many Nuclear Weapon States in Kurt Campbell, Robert Einhorn, and Mitchell Reiss (eds.) The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004. pp.3-17 Web Sources: * PIR Center Project “Ways Towards Nuclear Disarmament”
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Lecture topic |
Lecturer |
Date and time |
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Iranian Nuclear Problem |
Vladimir A. Orlov Advisor, PIR Center |
September, 16 (Wednesday) 19:15-20:45 |
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Required literature: * Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action * Joint Plan of Action negotiated by E3+3 and Iran * Vladimir Orlov. Future of Iranian nuclear program * Ebrahim Motaghi Iranian Approaches to Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East * Vladimir Orlov. A Labyrinth with no Walls. Russia in Global Affairs. March, 25, 2013. * White Paper “Ten Steps Toward a Weapon of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East”. PIR Center, 2013. * UN Security Council Resolution 1929. United Nations Website, 09 June 2010 * UN Security Council Resolution 1835, United Nations Website, 27 September 2008 * UN Security Council Resolution 1803, United Nations Website, 3 March 2008 Recommended literature: * Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Report by the IAEA Director General. May 23, 2014* Statement by the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Dr. Hassan Rouhani at the Sixty-eight Session of the United Nations General Assembly. September 28, 2013 * PIR Center and partners. How to Reach an Agreement with Iran. Russia Confidential, Issue № 5 (197), Vol. 12. May 2013 Web Sources: * PIR Center project “Iranian Nuclear Program: Russia’s Interests”
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Lecturer |
Date and time |
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Modern Arms Control Challenges. Nuclear Reductions and Missile Defence |
Evgeny P. Buzhinsky Chairman of the Executive Board, PIR Center |
September, 23 (Wednesday) 17:35-19:05 19:15-20:45 |
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Required literature: * White Paper: "Towards Nuclear Disarmament: NPT Article VI and Implementation of the 2010 Review Conference Decisions". PIR Center, 2014. * Anatoly Antonov. Further Nuclear Arms Limitation: Factors and Prospects. Security Index (International Edition) No. 2 (103), Spring 2013 * Evgeny Buzhinsky. Does the INF Treaty Have a Future? Russia Confidential, Issue № 8 (212), August 2014 * Anatoly Antonov. Military Use of Space. Russia Confidential, Issue № 8 (188), Vol.11. August 2012 * Evgeny Buzhinsky. The Outlook for UAV Research and Development. Security Index (International Edition) No. 2 (103), Spring 2013 * Oleg Shakirov. Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Old Problems, New Solutions. Security Index (International Edition) No. 3 (104), Summer 2013. 13-23 pp Recommended literature: * James Acton. Low Numbers. A Practical Path to Deep Nuclear Reductions. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011 * Anatoly Antonov, Kari Eken Wollebaek, Gennady Evstafiev, Mikhail Lysenko, Anastasiya Malygina, William Potter, Alexander Radchuk, Roland Timerbaev, Nandan Unnikrishnan. Multilateral Approaches towards Nuclear Disarmament: The Next Steps. Security Index (International Edition), No. 1 (90), Spring 2009 * Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report. U.S. Department of Defense, February 2010. * Vladimir Dvorkin, Alexei Arbatov. Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation. Carnegie Endowment for International Piece. Moscow, 2013. * David Hoffman. The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy. Anchor, 2010. * Josef Goldblat. Arms Control: The New Guide to Negotiations and Agreements. Sage Publications Ltd., 2002 * The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. Approved by President of the Russian Federation V. Putin on 5 February, 2010 * Anatoly Antonov. Long-Range Precision-Guided Conventional Weapons: Implications for Arms Control and Strategic Stability. Speech at the joint meeting of members of the Centre russe d’etudes politiques and the Trialogue Club International. April 21, 2013. * Evgeny Buzhinsky, Anatoly Dyakov, Evgeny Ilyin, Alexander Kolbin, and others. The Future of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Options Available. Security Index (International Edition) No. 2 (103), Spring 2013 * Josef Goldblat. Arms Control: The New Guide to Negotiations and Agreements. Sage Publications Ltd., 2002 * Nayef R.F. Al-Rodhan. Meta-Geopolitics of Outer Space: An Analysis of Space Power, Security and Governance. Pagrave Macmillan, 2012 * Pavel Luzin. Outer Space – Field For Conflicts, Field For Interaction. Security Index (International Edition) No. 1 (86), Winter 2008/2009 * Andrei Zagorski. Conventional Arms Control in Europe: is there a Way Out of the Stalemate? Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security. IMEMO Supplement to the Russian Edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2012. 164-174 pp.
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Lecture topic |
Lecturer |
Date and time |
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Nuclear Weapon States: Nuclear Programs, Military Doctrines, and Nonproliferation |
Ildar A. Akhtamzyan Associate Professor, MGIMO |
September, 30 (Wednesday) 17:35-19:05
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Recommended literature: * James Acton. Is China Changing Its Position on Nuclear Weapons? The New York Times. 18 April, 2013 * Jacques Hymens. Achieving nuclear ambitions. Scientists, politicians, and proliferation. Cambridge (MASS) University press, 2012 * Alexander Kolbin. China and Nuclear Disarmament: Is Reduction of Chinese Strategic Nuclear Weapons a Possibility? Security Index (International Edition), No. 3 (100), Summer 2012 * Richard Rhodes. The Making of the Atomic Bomb. Simon & Schuster, 1995 * Nikolai Sokov. The New, 2010 Russian Military Doctrine: The Nuclear Angle. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 5 February, 2010 * Nuclear Posture Review Report. U.S. Department of Defense. April, 2010 * Bruno Tertrais. A Comparison between US, UK and French Nuclear Policies and Doctrines. Sciences Po, February 2007 Web Sources: * Country Profiles. Nuclear Threat Initiative Website
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Lecture topic |
Lecturer |
Date and time |
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Introduction to cyber dimensions of nonproliferation, disarmament and nuclear security |
Elena Chernenko, Head of the Foreign Desk of the Kommersant Daily. Member of the PIR Center’s Executive Board |
September, 30 (Wednesday) 19:15 – 20:45 |
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Recommended literature: * Ch. III. Security of Critical Information Infrastructure: Key Threats and Response Strategies. Ch. IV. Military and Political use of ICTs: Challenges to Global Security and International Law from the report Global Internet Governance and International Security in the Field of ICT Use (bu Oleg Demidov). PIR Press, Moscow-Geneva. 2015. P. 24-48
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Lecture topic |
Lecturer |
Date and time |
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Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones |
Ildar A. Akhtamzyan Associate Professor, MGIMO |
October, 7 (Wednesday) 17:35 – 19:05 |
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Required literature: * White Paper “Ten Steps Toward a Weapon of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East”. PIR Center, 2013.Recommended literature: * Ildar Akhtamzyan. Nuclear-Weapon-free Zones in the Beginning of the XXI Century // Lessons to be Learned from Non-Proliferation Failures and Successes. Edited by Alexander Nikitin. IOS Press: Amsterdam, Berlin, Oxford, Tokyo, Washington D.C., 2009. 38-52 pp * African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty [Treaty of Pelindaba]. Opened for signature on 11 April 1996. * Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone [Treaty of Semipalatinsk]. Opened for signature on 8 September 2006. * South-Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone. Opened for signature on 6 August 1985. * Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone [Treaty of Bangkok]. Opened for signature on 15 December 1995. * Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America [Treaty of Tlatelolco]. Opened for signature on 14 February 1967. * The Antarctic Treaty. Opened for signature on 1 December 1959
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Lecture topic |
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Role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other international organizations in the Nonproliferation Regime. IAEA Safeguards |
Alexey Ubeev, Member of the Advisory Board, PIR Center |
October, 7 (Wednesday) 19:15 – 20:45 |
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Required literature: * The Statute of the IAEA * Valery Bytchkov. IAEA Safeguards System: Conceptual Evolution. Center for Energy and Security Studies. September 6, 2013 Recommended literature: * Establishing the Nuclear Security Infrastructure for a Nuclear Power Programme. IAEA Nuclear Security Series 19, 2013 * IAEA Database on Nuclear Power Reactors * Nuclear Security Systems and Measures for the Detection of Nuclear and other Radioactive Material out of Regulatory Control. IAEA Nuclear Security Series, May, 2013 * Security Assurances and Nuclear Nonproliferation. Ed. By Jeffrey W. Knopf. Stanford University Press, 2012
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Lecture topic |
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Date and time |
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Nonproliferation and Security in South Asia |
Vyacheslav Trubnikov, Member of the Executive Board, PIR Center |
October, 14 (Wednesday) 17:35 – 19:05 |
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Nuclear Energy Development and Nuclear Security |
Alexey Ubeev, Member of the Advisory Board, PIR Center |
October, 14 (Wednesday) 19:15 – 20:45 |
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Required literature: * Viktor Murogov. Nuclear Energy: Lessons from the Past, Current Problems, and New Initiatives. Security Index (International Edition) No. 2 (103), Spring 2013* The Hague Communiqué 2014. The Hague Nuclear Security Summit * Grigory Berdennikov. Industry Must Contribute to Practical Nuclear Security Measures. Security Index (International Edition) 1 (106), Winter 2014 Recommended literature: * Andrey Baklitskiy. Nuclear energy in the Middle East: Russia's interests and role. Security Index (International Edition) No. 3 (104), Summer 2013 * William H. Tobey, Pavel S. Zolotarev. The Nuclear Terrorism Threat. Presentation, Meeting of the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit Sherpas, Pattaya, Thailand. January 13, 2014 * Viktor Murogov. Nuclear Technology: History, State and Technical Challenges of Nuclear Power Development. Course Lectures. NRNU (MEPHI – IATE), ISTC. Moscow, 2012 * Nikolai Ponomarev-Stepnoi. Global Nuclear Energy Architecture: a Key to Energy Security. Security Index (International Edition) No. 3 (100), Summer 2012 * Albert Zulkharneev, Viktor Murogov. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Culture: A New Resource for Russian Public Diplomacy. International Affairs, Vol. 58, No. 2, 2012 Web Sources: * PIR Center Project “Development of Russia’s Nuclear Exports”* Nuclear Power in the World Today. World Nuclear Association Website
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Test Debate «Will the World Be More Secure without Nuclear Weapons?» Course summing up |
Albert F. Zulkharneev Director, PIR Center |
October, 21 (Wednesday) 17:35 – 20:45 |
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Required literature: * George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn. A World Free of Nuclear Weapons. Wall Street Journal, January 2007 * Nuclear Tipping Point: Documentary Film. Nuclear Security Project, 2010. Recommended literature: * Dispute between Sergey Karaganov and Alexei Arbatov. Global Zero and Common Sence: Nuclear Weapons in the Modern World; Common Sense and Disarmament: The Matter and Philosophy of Nuclear Weapons; Sergei Karaganov’s Response. Russia in Global Affairs, July-October 2010 * Kurt Campbell, Robert Einhorn, Mitchell Reiss. The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices. Brookings Institution Press, 2004 * Roundtable: “Nuclear Arsenals in 25 Years”. Security Index (International Edition) No. 1 (86), Winter 2008/2009 * Alexei Obukhov. Nuclear Weapons and Christian Ethics. Security Index (International Edition) No. 2 (82), Fall 2007. * Alexandr Radchuk. The Great Nuclear Game of the Game of the 21st century Disarmament or War. Security Index (International Edition), No. 4 (93), Fall 2010 * George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn. Towards a Nuclear Free World. Wall Street Journal, January 2008 * Roland Timerbaev. Nuclear-Weapon-Free-World: Ways of Moving Ahead. Security Index (International Edition) No. 2 (87), Spring 2009. Web Sources: * PIR Center Project “Ways Towards Nuclear Disarmament” |
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