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  • Affiliation : Vice President, Observer Research Foundation
  • Affiliation : Journalist
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International Security Index iSi increased to 2795 points. Eggert, Unnikrishnan comment events of the week.

21.05.2013

MOSCOW, MAY 21, 2013. PIR PRESS – “The chances that the crisis in Syria will be stopped in the nearest future are diminishing. I don’t believe that in the summer of 2013 there will be some fundamental changes in security situation. In June, Iran's Presidential elections will be held. After them, I think some new balance of power in the region can be seen. Anyway, the situation inside the country and abroad will depend mainly on their results”, - Editor-in-Chief of Kommersant FM radio, Konstantin von Eggert.

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of May 13 - 20, 2013, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2795 points. North Korea launched three short-range missiles. In Syria, the fighting between the army and the rebels continued in Aleppo with both sides trying to control the city prison; in Damascus in the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk a peaceful demonstration was gunned. The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on Syria, condemning the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In Turkey, protests against the Syrian policy of Ankara took place. On the Sinai Peninsula militants kidnapped Egyptian security officers. In Libya, an attack on a police station occurred, there were casualties. In Nigeria, the army launched a counter-terrorist operation against the extremist group Boko Haram. Terrorist attacks were committed in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria. In Bolivia, the demonstrations with demand to increased pensions payment escalated into clashes with police. The first tranche of international aid was allocated to Cyprus. Torrential rains in China, the collapse of the factory building in Cambodia, the collision of passenger trains in the United States were among the negative events of the week.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Konstantin von Eggert, Member, Royal Institute of International Relations, Editor-in-Chief of Kommersant FM radio - by phone from Moscow: The security situation in the world has worsened in the spring. The main reason is a confrontation on the Korean peninsula. The crisis in relations between the DPRK and South Korea and the United States has not yet been overcome. The ongoing tension in the Middle East has also a negative impact on international security. The chances that the crisis in Syria will be stopped in the nearest future are diminishing. I don’t believe that in the summer of 2013 there will be some fundamental changes in security situation. In June, Iran's Presidential elections will be held. After them, I think some new balance of power in the region can be seen. Anyway, the situation inside the country and abroad will depend mainly on their results.

Nandan Unnikrishnan, Vice President, Observer Research Foundation – by phone from Delhi: The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2014 and the further development of the situation in the Afghanistan-Pakistan zone are the problems which disturbed India. Position of Delhi is that Americans are leaving the country too early without completing the tasks set before them. At the same time, we understand that many of the problems facing Afghanistan should be resolved by the Afghans themselves. Indo-Pakistani contradictions, perhaps, create the greatest tension in the region. But while Pakistan is busy with presidential elections the situation in the region is more or less stable. Meanwhile the results of these elections will influence the balance of power in the region. Although the elections itself is a positive trend in the development of the political life in Pakistan and the whole region.

In the summer of 2013 there will be no unexpected events. On the contrary, situation on the Indo-Pakistan and Indo-China border will stabilize.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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