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  • Affiliation : President, President, The Middle East Institute (MEI)
  • Affiliation : Vice President, Observer Research Foundation
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International Security Index iSi stands at 2781 points. Unnikrishnan, Satanovsky comment events of the week

24.06.2014

MOSCOW, JUNE 24, 2014. PIR PRESS “Successful presidential elections in Afghanistan contributed a positive development to South Asian regional security. Those in India anticipate from the new President effective work towards stabilizing the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA). We hope that the new Afghan authorities will find their own way out of the complicated situation that afflicts their country and lessen the influence of the Afghanistan factor on the rest of South Asian security.  Most importantly, we hope that Afghanistan will cease to be a gathering point for terrorists and will begin to conduct peaceful policies”, – Vice President, Observer Research Foundation Nandan Unnikrishnan.   

The new weekly International Security Index iSi was published in Kommersant (in Russian).

During the week of 16 - 23, 2014, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2781 points. Fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian army and militias; an exchange of fire occurred on the Russian-Ukrainian border near the border crossing point Shahtinsk. Petr Poroshenko announced a temporary ceasefire in the south-east of the country. In Iraq, Islamists seized the city of Tal Afar, Mosul, and Tikrit in the north of the country; USA expressed readiness to help the government in Baghdad in the fight against extremists. In Syria, the army took control over the village Tfila on the Syrian-Lebanese border. In Libya and Yemen, clashes occurred between the army and rebels. Israeli Air Force carried out strikes in the Gaza Strip. In Vienna, regular talks between Iran and international mediators from the P5+1 ended without results. South Korean experts announced that North Korea successfully conducted a missile test intended to examine the possibility of penetrating the South Korean missile defense system. In Afghanistan, the presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah refused to recognize the results of the second round of the elections; the Taliban attacked a NATO base. Pakistan Air Force conducted a special operation in North Waziristan to neutralize insurgents.

Comments on the week's events by members of PIR Center's International Expert Group

Nandan Unnikrishnan (India), Director of Eurasian Studies, Vice President, Observer Research Foundation – by phone from Delhi:  The summer of 2014 is marked by the continuation of global tension. The first reason for this tension is the events in the Ukraine and around it. Despite the fact that the Ukrainian crisis has no direct impact on the South Asian region, it raises serious concern. I hope that the crisis in Ukraine will not have direct consequences on neighboring regions.

Successful presidential elections in Afghanistan contributed a positive development to South Asian regional security. Those in India anticipate from the new President effective work towards stabilizing the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA). We hope that the new Afghan authorities will find their own way out of the complicated situation that afflicts their country and lessen the influence of the Afghanistan factor on the rest of South Asian security.  Most importantly, we hope that Afghanistan will cease to be a gathering point for terrorists and will begin to conduct politics peacefully.

In July-August 2014, global security will depend largely on resolving the crisis in the Ukraine. While there is no clarity on this issue, the global situation will remain complicated.

Evgeny Satanovsky (Russia), President of the Institute of Middle East Studies – by phone from Moscow: Iran and the six international mediators at the latest negotiations in Vienna failed to agree the text of a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. An agreement could be reached either if the parties are ready to sign and turn a blind eye to the fact that it will never work, or if  the West agrees to all of Iran’s conditions. Iran will never give up its nuclear program. To hope that this could happen one day is pointless and unprofessional.

It is worth noting among the positive events of the period the reunification of Crimea with Russia.  Moscow’s tough and pragmatic position in the Ukrainian crisis signals the end of the era of a unipolar world, with its unilateral interventions and the overthrow of governments. This situation returns the balance of relations between the countries of the region to the natural framework.

Another positive factor of the period was the weakening of the USA and EU by strengthening China and Russia, as well as signing on May 29th in Astana the treaty on establishing the Eurasian Economic Union. These developments are changing the configuration of the external forces in the region.

In summer 2014, the level of security in the world will decline. The USA will try to demonstrate their continued level of influence. However, it is fraught with unpredictable consequences.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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