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“Bashar Assad was reelected as the President of Syria. Foreign intervention after the election remains an option, but it definitely would be a costly one. The task of organizing such intervention stands before Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. The position of the West will depend on the final cost-benefit analysis. Iran will continue providing Assad with military and political supports, Russia and China will stand by Syria at the UN”, – President of the Institute of Middle East Studies Evgeny Satanovsky. 


“Return to the Constitution of 2004 actually means the removal of Viktor Yanukovych from power and further deterioration of the situation in the country. The most optimal way out of this situation is to stop violent confrontation and to launch preparations for the presidential elections. However, the most significant impediment to implementation of this scenario is the absense of a credible national leader of the opposition and the growing influence of ultra-nationalist forces, particularly in the West of Ukraine”, - PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Retired) Evgeny Buzhinsky.


“In the winter of 2013/14 the level of security in the world will lower. This will be the result of expected counter-attack of the opposition in Syria, and retaliations that Damascus and Tehran will throw on Sunni insurgents. Terrorist attacks will occur against the residencies of the Revolutionary Guards at the Iranian embassies in the Arab countries as it happened in Beirut. Iranian response will come in no time. Escalation of confrontation between Iran and Israel is also possible”, – President of the Institute of Middle East Studies, Evgeny Satanovsky.


“West, as well as Russia and China, is not afraid of Iranian nuclear capability. It poses danger mainly to Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, while concessions to Iran are tangible, Iranian concessions are not worth anything. This reminds of the situation of 2003, when negotiations were also led by Rouhani. Then we had the same kind of euphoria that after two years ended in failure and serious progress of Iran in the nuclear field”, – President of the Institute of Middle East Studies, Evgeny Satanovsky.



“Provocation on the part of the opposition in Damascus suburb, designed to trigger Western intervention in Syria and expanding inflow of foreign jihadists from Yemen and the Afghan Taliban led to a decrease in security of the region. The neutrality of Israel in the Syrian civil war and the initiative of Vladimir Putin on putting Syrian chemical weapons under international control were among the few positive developments of the period. However, we should not expect that something significant happens”, - President of the Institute of Middle East Studies Evgeny Satanovsky.


“The UN peacekeepers are only tools and the decision on how to use these tools is being made by important officials in New York. They are trying to make this decision by compromise or by condition of a complete blocking by one State of any compromise. The latter means a complete standstill, that is why all the questions must be addressed to the guys from the East River”, – Alexander Shumilin, the Head of the Center for Analysis of Middle East conflicts.


“In August we witnessed a sharp deterioration in Indo-Pakistani relations. On the border of India and Pakistan along the Line of Control in Kashmir took place skirmishes resulting in dead and wounded. Then, it was reported that Islamabad would withdraw from talks on TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India). How reliable is this information is not clear yet. From the objective point of view it is very beneficial for Pakistan to be a part of this pipeline”, – Vice President at the Observer Research Foundation Nandan Unnikrishnan.


“Overall the lesson to draw is that the Arab spring has not brought reconciliation and settlement in some Arab states and some have contributed to continuing regional instability, like Libya. This underlines the general conclusion: there is no easy transition from corrupt dictatorial or authoritarian regimes in the short run. Also there is one thing that connects the Arab spring case: it is the insistence on holding to power and not being ready to relinquish it”, - Head of the International Security Program of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, Pál Dunay.


“Avalanche has moved and like any avalanche it is only rolling downhill. It is possible that in the end, after years or decades of rolling down, the situation will result in a civil war or conflict with neighbors, with Israel being the most plausible candidate. Egypt would break up. The Suez Canal zone, for example could became a Panama-style quasi sate. The transformation of Sinai in a gray zone, part of which Israel will have to control - either directly or through local Bedouin tribes is also likely”, - President of the Institute of Middle East Studies Evgeny Satanovsky. 


“The second week of massive clashes between protesters and police in Turkey shows the first serious signs to position of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Party of Justice and Development. The situation emerging in the country may become the beginning of the end of the monopoly of Islamists at power. However, I do not think that Erdogan and his government would resign”, - President of the Institute of Middle East Studies Evgeny Satanovsky.