Chronology

The agreement between the U.S. and the Russian Federation "Concerning the Safe Transportation, Storage and Destruction of Weapons and the Prevention of Weapons Proliferation" was extended for seven years
16.06.1999

International Security Index iSi

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PIR PRESS NEWS

08.05.2019

On May 2, more than 40 friends and partners of the PIR Center gathered at the Permanent Mission of Russia to the UN. Among them were heads and high representatives of delegations participating in the third session of the Preparatory Committee of the NPT Review Conference, the world's largest experts in the field of non-proliferation, graduates of PIR Center programs working in New York, young scientists and master students of double degree in the field of non-proliferation.

30.04.2019

"Can it really be true that PIR Center is a quarter of a century old today? It would be a great occasion for a grand celebration, wouldn’t it. But I still cannot quite believe it.

When me and a tiny team of my associates were establishing PIR Center in the spring of 1994, working in a small room on the corner of Tverskaya Ulitsa and Strastny Boulevard overlooking the Pushkin statue in the very heart of Moscow, I could hardly imagine that this great institution would live long enough to see the new century and indeed the new millennium. If someone told me back at the time that it would mark its 25th anniversary in Moscow, Geneva and New York, or that greetings would be pouring in from all over the world to what is now a highly reputable international nongovernmental organization, I probably wouldn’t believe them. After all, how many fly-by-night NGOs have we all seen over the years – here today, gone tomorrow?," Vladimir Orlov, PIR Center Founder.

25.04.2019

"Today a member of the PIR Center Executive Board, a member of the IMEMO (Institute of World Economy and International Relations) Directorate, Army General, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Hero of Russia Vyacheslav Trubnikov celebrates his 75th birthday. Vyacheslav Ivanovich, having reached the greatest heights of public service, you remained open to new ideas, plans and actions. We are happy to work with you for almost ten years! You are a source of soft, but mighty and attracting power, which is especially important in relations with the new generation of specialists – those who will construct a new world. Many well-known and beginning diplomats and military men, scientists and journalists throughout Eurasia are grateful for your inspiration and support, for your wise and precise judgement. We wish you good health, optimism and high spirits! We look forward to new meetings with you! Keep it up!" – PIR Center Director Albert Zulkharneev. 

iSi Methodology

iSi is determined in accordance with an original method developed by the PIR Center. It indicates the general level of the state of international security in the military, political, economic, and environmental spheres. It also takes into account the impact of nongovernmental actors (in particular, terrorist activity).

The most important characteristics of iSi are its comprehensiveness, robustness, and clarity. A great number of the factors that directly effect international security are reflected in iSi in a concentrated form. They include: the threat of global nuclear war, the number and intensity of local conflicts, the type of political relations between various countries and international organizations, the intensity and scale of terrorist activity, the stability of the global economy, and the threat posed by man-made catastrophes and epidemics.

The structure of iSi consists of two main parts. The first is the basic Index value. It is calculated on the basis of expert analyses of the probability of the occurrence of one or another global or regional event that would have a direct impact on international security. Each such event is given a certain score on the scale we have developed.

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In our calculations, total points increase as the probability of various events that might disrupt international security decreases, and, correspondingly, they decrease with an increase in the probability of such events. The total of the points for each factor is the iSi base value, a quantity calculated once per year. Each type of factor (military, political, economic, man-made catastrophe, and terrorist) has is “weighted” according to a scale of priorities and given an appropriate coefficient.  

The second part of iSi is calculated by evaluating actual events that have an influence on international security during a particular month. Each such event is assessed both according to its positive or negative influence on international security and according to its degree of influence (weak, moderate, or strong) according to the point scale we have developed. The degree of influence of each such factor is corrected depending on the country or region in which the event took place. In order to do this, we have developed a coefficient for the significance of particular regions (from 1 to 9). The number of positive points for each individual factor indicates the event's contribution to international security; negative marks indicate the negative influence of a particular factor.

The iSi Index, therefore, is calculated according to the following formula:

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Where

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= coefficient “weight” of global factors;

 

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= coefficient “weight” of regional factors;

 

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 = coefficient “weight” of local factors;

 

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 = coefficient indicating the importance of an individual region.

 

We have been calculating iSi on a monthly basis since July 2006. The increase or decrease in its absolute value indicates the trends in international security during the period in question, including both their direction and strength. The sum of all points provides the basic value of iSi, which shows how distant the global situation is at that moment from the “ideal”—when there are no threats at all.

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