Chronology

The Treaty between the U.S. and the USSR on the Limitation of Underground Nuclear Weapon Tests and the Treaty between the USSR and the U.S. on Underground Nuclear Explosions for Peaceful Purposes come into force.
11.12.1990
The South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty (the Treaty of Rarotonga) enters into force.
11.12.1986
Additional Protocols I and II to the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (Tlatelolco Treaty) come into force for Great Britain.
11.12.1969

International Security Index iSi

PIR PRESS LOGO

PIR PRESS NEWS

10.12.2019

“Although I try to remain optimistic about the possibility of Russian-American dialogue in preparation for and during the NPT 2020 Review Conference ... I am becoming more and more skeptical, even worried and disappointed with how events are developing. In such difficult times, it is especially important to generate constructive and positive ideas, and I look forward to welcome them from the young generation of experts”, – PIR Center Director Vladimir Orlov.

09.12.2019

“Russian vision and decisions on the issues of arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation remain very pragmatic. We do not feel constrained by traditional formats and diplomatic protocol. On the contrary, we strongly believe that they are the best way to resolve the issues of today and probably of tomorrow”, – Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov for PIR Center "Open Collar" Project image
05.12.2019

“Get in your favourite car and drive, wherever the road takes you”, – Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. 

iSi Methodology

iSi is determined in accordance with an original method developed by the PIR Center. It indicates the general level of the state of international security in the military, political, economic, and environmental spheres. It also takes into account the impact of nongovernmental actors (in particular, terrorist activity).

The most important characteristics of iSi are its comprehensiveness, robustness, and clarity. A great number of the factors that directly effect international security are reflected in iSi in a concentrated form. They include: the threat of global nuclear war, the number and intensity of local conflicts, the type of political relations between various countries and international organizations, the intensity and scale of terrorist activity, the stability of the global economy, and the threat posed by man-made catastrophes and epidemics.

The structure of iSi consists of two main parts. The first is the basic Index value. It is calculated on the basis of expert analyses of the probability of the occurrence of one or another global or regional event that would have a direct impact on international security. Each such event is given a certain score on the scale we have developed.

p1815_2.jpg

In our calculations, total points increase as the probability of various events that might disrupt international security decreases, and, correspondingly, they decrease with an increase in the probability of such events. The total of the points for each factor is the iSi base value, a quantity calculated once per year. Each type of factor (military, political, economic, man-made catastrophe, and terrorist) has is “weighted” according to a scale of priorities and given an appropriate coefficient.  

The second part of iSi is calculated by evaluating actual events that have an influence on international security during a particular month. Each such event is assessed both according to its positive or negative influence on international security and according to its degree of influence (weak, moderate, or strong) according to the point scale we have developed. The degree of influence of each such factor is corrected depending on the country or region in which the event took place. In order to do this, we have developed a coefficient for the significance of particular regions (from 1 to 9). The number of positive points for each individual factor indicates the event's contribution to international security; negative marks indicate the negative influence of a particular factor.

The iSi Index, therefore, is calculated according to the following formula:

 p1815_1.jpg

 

 

Where

p1554_2.jpg


= coefficient “weight” of global factors;

 

p1815_3.jpg

 

= coefficient “weight” of regional factors;

 

 p1815_4.jpg

 = coefficient “weight” of local factors;

 

p1815_5.jpg

 

 = coefficient indicating the importance of an individual region.

 

We have been calculating iSi on a monthly basis since July 2006. The increase or decrease in its absolute value indicates the trends in international security during the period in question, including both their direction and strength. The sum of all points provides the basic value of iSi, which shows how distant the global situation is at that moment from the “ideal”—when there are no threats at all.

Pir Center

loading