Hot Topic № 2 (13), 2025. The «Fortochka» of Opportunity in Russia-U.S. Relations Has Cracked Open. What Does It Mean?

Hot Topic

It was back on December 5, 2016, when I published an article on the prospects for Russian-American relations after Trump’s election victory, titled “Trump, Russia and a Narrow Window of Opportunity.” I listed seven points that made an improvement in relations seem realistic at the time. One of those points was the “formation” of a new security architecture on the European continent. “Donald Trump is far-sighted in this area,” I wrote back then. “Putin can and should talk to him about developing effective confidence-building measures in Europe, reducing the risk of military incidents along the ‘frontier’ between Russia and NATO, and ensuring Ukraine’s neutral, non-aligned status.”

Yes, the situation was fundamentally different then, as there was no military conflict yet. Today, the realities of borders have changed. Russia will not retreat from the positions it has secured — what matters is that Washington and other key adversarial capitals now understand this. Equally important, alongside Ukraine’s neutrality and the consolidation of new borders, are guarantees of equal rights for all Ukrainian citizens to protect the lives, dignity, and future of those who speak Russian and openly embrace their cultural affinity with Russia.

Back in December 2016, I also warned against illusions about Trump, whom many in Russia at the time saw as a kind of “Father Christmas” bringing gifts. “One can expect a reduction in confrontation,” I wrote. “One can work on reviving the bilateral strategic dialogue. One can create conditions for ‘glimmers of hope’ in targeted, specific areas. But let’s not forget just as Russia and the U.S. share the responsibility of two nuclear superpowers for the fate of humanity, they are also antagonists in international relations in the 21st century. The national interests of our two countries will continue to clash more often than they align. Our views on world order, on justice and fairness, are opposed…”

Understanding this, Russia had — and still has — a difficult and meticulous “homework assignment” ahead — particularly during Trump’s presidency, especially in its first year! — to further strengthen our strategic relations with China, our eastern neighbor.

“So, does this mean that Trump’s victory indeed flung open a window of opportunity for U.S.-Russia relations?” I wrote in December 2016. “Not quite. First, it didn’t fling it open — it only cracked it. Second, it wasn’t a window, but merely a fortochka.” That moment, I argued, could best be described as a “fortochka of opportunity.” Vladimir Dal, in his dictionary, defined this borrowed German word as “a small door in a window… which opens on its own.” And — I would add — just as easily, it can close.

That is precisely what happened. During Trump’s first term, this fortochka never fully opened — he was tied hand and foot at home. Now, in this regard, the situation is different — far more favorable, at least for the next two years. After the Russia-U.S. talks in Riyadh on February 18, 2025, the fortochka indeed cracked open… And fresh air has begun to flow in.

But now is not the time for loud applause. It is time for quiet, painstaking work — seeking common ground and steadily advancing our country’s long-term interests and development goals.

Keywords: International Security; Russia-US; Strategic Stability

RUF

F4/SOR – 25/02/19