Hot Topic № 10 (21), 2025. The US-Russia summit should leave a feeling of “longevity” rather than short-termism

– Minimum-expectations from the Alaska summit: there will be an unblocking of bilateral strategic relations between Russia and the US. I see how the preconditions for positive comprehensive developments have matured and are ripening. According to my observations, both Moscow and Washington are preparing for the summit in a meticulous, multivariant manner without spotlights and without publicizing the real topics of upcoming meeting.

I would say preparations for the summit are taking place in very private and mutually respectful atmosphere. This in itself is not a guarantee of a successful outcome, but it is a necessary condition for progress during the summit to be possible at all.

Progress is real on several fronts: in normalizing the work of both states’ diplomatic missions; in launching at least one symbolic strategic joint project; in jointly instructing the US and Russian teams to prepare the fundamentals to maintain strategic nuclear arms thresholds as they are enshrined in the New START, which will expire next February.

The summit should leave a feeling of “longevity” rather than short-termism. Hence, there should be a combination of both “practical” and “ambitious” results. Expectations-maximum from the Alaska meeting: a new détente, including the European region, will be launched. This is wishful thinking. It is not impossible, but it is more complicated, since there is “third force” railing against the US-Russia rapprochement.

The contours of the “new détente”, including the conditions for ending the Ukrainian conflict, can be outlined in Alaska if there is a conjugation of wills between two leaders. But even in this favorable scenario it will be up to the next round of negotiations to enshrine outlines of the “new détente”.

This comment was first published in the Kommersant Daily on August 12, 2025 (the article is translated from Russian into English).

Keywords: Strategic Stability; Arms Control; Russia–USA

AC, RUF

E16/AST – 25/08/15