Bruno Rukavina,
PhD Candidate
Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb
Sir,
The Security Index Yearbook 2024–2025, edited by Vladimir Orlov and Elena Karnaukhova and jointly published by PIR Center and MGIMO University, is a timely and ambitious volume that seeks to place Russian perspectives into the global debate on security and international relations. Produced in the context of unprecedented polarization between Russia and the West, the Yearbook functions simultaneously as a research-based handbook and as a tool for diplomacy. Its stated aim is to provide access to Russian analyses of contemporary global and regional security challenges to foreign experts, policymakers, and think tanks.
The structure of the Yearbook reflects has dual purpose. Thematic sections examine the future of nuclear arms control, the fragility of the nonproliferation regime, developments in lethal autonomous weapons, cyber diplomacy, and outer space governance. Other chapters turn to terrorism, new conventional weapons, and the role of technological innovation in reshaping security dilemmas. A second major focus is regional: Russia’s relations with China, Iran, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America are analyzed in detail, alongside reflections on the collapse of Europe’s post–Cold War security architecture. By including dialogues with Russian diplomats and revisiting earlier publications, the editors underscore continuity in Moscow’s strategic thinking.
Several overarching themes emerge across the contributions. The most prominent is the claim that the world is undergoing a systemic transition from U.S.-led unipolarity to multipolarity. The war in Ukraine is presented as both a catalyst and a reflection of this shift. Russian experts emphasize the rise of what they call the “Global Majority” – states in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East that resist Western sanctions and prefer to pursue independent policies. This notion highlights Moscow’s effort to situate itself as a partner of the non-Western world rather than a marginalized actor in the Western system.
Strategic stability and nuclear politics form a second key theme. The looming expiration of the New START Treaty in 2026, debates over nuclear modernization, and concerns about potential new nuclear states illustrate the fragility of existing regimes. Russian contributors argue that the erosion of arms control frameworks undermines predictability and increases the risk of miscalculation. At the same time, nuclear energy is framed as both a development opportunity and a political instrument, with the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant serving as a case study of how civilian technology can become securitized in conflict.
Equally important are the chapters dealing with technological frontiers. Autonomous weapons, cyber rivalry, and the militarization of space are examined as emerging domains where international law lags behind reality. Russia’s “cyber diplomacy,” increasingly oriented toward Asia and BRICS partners, is presented as a strategic adaptation to Western attempt to isolate Russia. Similarly, space governance is depicted as a test case of whether major powers can prevent militarization in an area essential for long-term sustainability. These analyses underscore the view that security in the twenty-first century will be defined as much by technology as by geopolitics.
The Yearbook’s relevance lies in its function as both scholarship and positioning. While the analyses are clearly shaped by Russia’s strategic worldview, they provide valuable insight into how Russian experts interpret the shifting world order, the failures of Western-led institutions, and the opportunities presented by new partnerships. Its narrative – of a declining West, a rising Global Majority, and Russia as a “security exporter” – may be ambitious, yet it is precisely this alternative framing that makes the volume an essential source of many useful alternative arguments and theses. In an era of fractured dialogue, the Security Index Yearbook offers a rare window into Russian academic discourse and its aspirations for shaping the emerging multipolar system.
Zagreb, October 2025
