PIR Center Is Back on Track: Analyzing the Threshold States

A NEW NUCLEAR NINE? ASSESSING THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE WORLD. SECOND EDITION (updated and expanded).

Ed. Vladimir Orlov, Sergey Semenov. Moscow: PIR Press. 2023 (published in Russian)

URL: https://pircenter.org/editions/new-nuclear-nine-report/ 

In the current era of turbulence, certain countries are seeking to change their strategic status. Many powers are attracted by the fact that seats in the nuclear club are up for grabs. Thus, PIR Center prepared a report which focuses on the capabilities of the most capable and concerned states and territories to acquire nuclear weapons.

The authors of the study conclude that Iran and South Korea have come closest to nuclear the weaponization in terms of motivation and technologies. At the same time, the build-up of nuclear capabilities of the countries in question which the authors refer to as the policy of small steps is a symptom of growing tensions in international relations and increasing conflict that will go hand in hand with the transition to a new world order. According to the researchers, in order to mitigate the risks accompanying the formation of this new world order – including in the nuclear sphere – major powers such as Russia and China will inevitably have to make certain concessions.

The book has been widely praised by specialists, experts, and Russian government officials.

Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federal Assembly, recapped: “The conclusions of the authors, detailed country assessments, and convincing scenarios of the development of the situation – are based on objective data, rigorous and impartial analysis of each aspect separately. All of these components make the report a solid foundation for discussing topical issues of nuclear nonproliferation with foreign partners, including within the framework of parliamentary diplomacy”^[1].

Dr. Alexander Fedorov, Associate Professor of the Bauman Moscow State Technical University and Member of PIR Center Executive Board, emphasized the significance of the report stating that “this book is a notable step in the development of Russian views on the transformation of nuclear proliferation threats, changes in their motivation, new forms and purposes of nuclear ambitions”^[2].This book can rightly be considered part of the PIR Center’s golden fund of research – it is one of the most relevant and non-trivial studies in the field of international security done in 2023. In a few years time, we will check it out in practice how relevant the PIR Center’s prediction regarding the expansion of the nuclear club has been.

[1] Translated from the Russian. – Editor’s Note.

[2] Translated from the Russian. – Editor’s Note.

E16/MIN – 24/04/15