Maritime Geopolitics of the Pacific and Indian Oceans: A View from Moscow. Alexei Kupriyanov. The Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, 2024.
ISBN: 978-5-907845-16-9
(published in English)
URL: https://valdaiclub.com/files/45452/.
In 2022, numerous geopolitical shifts precipitated the Russian foreign policy to pivot to the Asia-Pacific region, since the reprioritization of political strategies became a bright and insightful signal of the new rechanging environment of international policy. Accordingly, the progressive pivot to Asia, attempted by Moscow, became a symbol of fruitful cooperation, thereby bringing numerous positive outcomes in the economy and national security. Furthermore, Russian foreign trade with the Asia-Pacific grew from 26 % of all foreign trade in 2013 to 33.3% in 2021. Additionally, Russia-India trade increased sixfold in a matter of two years since 2022.
An efficient maritime activity in the region serves as the golden remedy for maintenance of strong leadership, based on equal partnership with all countries in the Asia-Pacific. It stands to reason that this new format of interaction between Moscow and the region’s countries could enable to reshape geostrategic environment efficiently in the foreseeable future. Undoubtedly, turning to Asia is a window of opportunity for the Russian foreign policy, but maritime activity of other key players within the Asia-Pacific could undergo dramatic changes in the regional security environment.
Amid the latest development in the Indo-Pacific, rivalry in the region between major powers is a significant challenge for the Kremlin to determine the most efficient course of action, which is crucial to face with new threats and orders. Dr. Alexei Kupriyanov, Head of Center of the Indo-Pacific Region at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), fairly draws parallels between historic background of Russia’s activity in the region and current situation of maritime activity of major powers in the Asia-Pacific in the Valdai Paper, entitled “Maritime Geopolitics of the Pacific and Indian Oceans: A View from Moscow”.
This comprehensive research assists the competitiveness of the region by providing an enormous number of details related to historic background of a determination of the Asia-Pacific as the epicenter of standoff between Moscow and Washington in the Cold War era. This approach enables readers to understand the roots of the geostrategic significance of the region, thus combining both economic and military aspects of the geopolitical transformation of the Asia-Pacific. Accordingly, not only does author analyze both military and political activity of key players in the region, but Dr. Alexei Kupriyanov also draws attention to predominantly economic factors in the region, fostering a deep understanding of contemporary complicated situation of differentiation between interested actors’ strategies.
The supreme role of the maritime geopolitical strategies, addressed in this research, remains one of the strongest points of this work, since it is significant to evaluate military activities of key players in the region by juxtaposition of rapidly changing military balance with classical maritime paradigms in geopolitics.
Nevertheless, it would be better to reflect on the transformation of the classical naval theories by providing a comprehensive analysis of a transformation of the geopolitical environment in the different stages of recorded history. Author focuses on Mahan’s strategy[1] to explain specific peculiarities of the geopolitical coordinates in the region, but there are exclusive concepts of both Chinese and Turkish schools of maritime geopolitics, transformed a representation of maritime strategies in the contemporary era of international relations. Hence, a lack of a theoretical base could impinge on comprehensive view towards current political and economic situation in the region.
Dr. Alexei Kupriyanov thoroughly compares the maritime power balance of major powers and interested actors in the region, encompassing activity of China, Russia, the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, and Australia in the Asia-Pacific. The author rightly raises an issue of the military and economic potential of the Asia-Pacific as a geopolitical asset that facilitates the prospects for establishing a dominant position for viable players in the region.
Additionally, author tends to qualify major powers’ spheres of geopolitical influence by providing vital information of the expansion of economic possibilities in the region, attempted by both regional and global powers. For instance, research reveals the issue of making geopolitical influence as a result of efficiently implemented civilian maritime initiatives and programs.
Dr. Alexei Kupriyanov highlights potential pathways for Russia to maintain maritime supremacy by integration of economic, political, and military strategies. Author’s recommendations for the revival of Russia’s geopolitical supremacy in the region are accompanied by proposals to step up economic and political cooperation with regional alliances to reinforce the security conjuncture, which are pivotal for forging a vital partnership with the region’s countries. Russian scholar not only offers recommendations for tailoring a comprehensive applied approach and delving into a search for a new format of cooperation with the region’s countries within the framework of alliance activity, but also advocates shaping new business opportunities. This, in turn, would attract new foreign investments in the Asia-Pacific.
Apparently, these recommendations serve catalyze an ultimate reconceptualization of Russia’s strategy in the Asia–Pacific to reconsider the strategic behavior of Moscow by a new geopolitical reality and numerous tendencies related to the security and economic transformation of the region.
The current Valdai Paper is a significant contribution to the field of regional security and contemporary economic architecture. The author analyzes the historical background of geopolitical transformation of the region and various aspects of achieving maritime supremacy by different interested actors in the Asia-Pacific during the Cold War and post-Cold War eras. This work is recommended for specialists in international security as well as a broader audience interested in both regional security and Asia-Pacific studies.
[1] Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914) is an American naval historian, rear admiral, and one of the founders of geopolitics. Mahan examines the influence of sea power on the course of history in Europe and America, formulates the patterns of war at sea, and substantiates the theory of “sea power”. According to this theory, achieving supremacy at sea was recognized as the fundamental law of war and the goal of ensuring victory over the enemy and the conquest of world domination. – Editor’s note.
