Greg Dong Suk Yoo,
Ph.D. Candidate at MGIMO
Sir,
The Security Index Yearbook 2024-2025 provides a comprehensive Russian perspective on the security dynamics of the Korean Peninsula. The views on both Koreas, analyzed by various experts across different chapters, are logical and sound, though they may appear somewhat unfamiliar to South Korean readers. For this reason, it is important for Korean experts to study this yearbook, as it reflects a distinctly Russian interpretation of global phenomena, a perspective that contrasts with the Western narratives more easily accessible in South Korea.
One important lesson from the Yearbook is that South Korea should strive toward balanced and constructive relations with all neighbouring countries, rather than privileging one partner and ostracizing others. This is particularly relevant in the current era of great-power competition, where over-reliance on a single ally can reduce Seoul’s strategic flexibility.
The Yearbook analyzes the creation of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) which gives Seoul a greater role in the decision-making process with Washington. Even though the NCG represent an effort to reinforce U.S. extended deterrence, many South Koreans remain dissatisfied. For the South Korean public, the NCG is viewed as a modest step, insufficient against the DPRK’s advancing nuclear and missile capabilities. However, it can also be seen as South Korea’s effort to strengthen its security posture vis-à-vis North Korea, while remaining within the framework of the global nonproliferation regime.
Regarding South Korea’s potential for developing nuclear weapons, although dissatisfaction and pro-nuclear sentiment are high, South Korea has not yet demonstrated genuine determination to pursue nuclear weapons independently. Only a profound geopolitical shift in the international environment, in my view, could serve as the real catalyst for South Korea to cross the nuclear threshold.
On the DPRK issue, the Yearbook also highlights the stalemate in negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang. I believe Russia can play a constructive role in this matter. President Trump has recently expressed his willingness to meet Kim Jong Un. In the context of deepening Russia–DPRK ties and worsening inter-Korean relations, Moscow could position itself as an effective mediator between the United States and North Korea. Such a role could revive prospects for peace on the Peninsula and restore momentum to the many trilateral economic projects between Russia, the ROK, and the DPRK that were once envisioned but never realized.
In conclusion, the Yearbook is a valuable contribution. I cannot wait for the updated version next year.
Seoul, August 2025
