On January 20, President-elect Donald J. Trump has entered the White House. Due to this development, the New York Times linked the nation’s waiting for the second term of Donald Trump to the Christian testament of long scale waiting for the Second Advent of Jesus Christ [1]. It is highly likely that a tremendous number of people around the whole world strongly believe that Donald Trump could change the current global security environment to make contemporary U.S.-Russia relations more stable.
Furthermore, some Americans reckon that New Trump’s administration efforts to restart strategic stability dialogue with Moscow would allow the U.S. providing more realist foreign policy and national security policy course [2]. Four months into Donald Trump’s presidency, it has become clear that the “America First” course will be a priority throughout his second term. On April 3, 2025, Donald Trump announced his tariff list, but it was Russia that was not included in that list. Hence, it is a relevant question: are there any expectations of the reunion of “old friends” in the context of general shifts in Trump’s foreign policy course?
There is no doubt that Donald Trump’s new national security course has provided the culmination among all Americans and other nations. During the period of Joe Biden’s presidency, political figures in the Unites States and worldwide parted with illusions of the possibility of creating an efficient secure environment within the framework of the bipolar arms control system [3]. In the era of the new modern technologies’ supremacy [4] (new conventional arms, anti-satellite weapons, hypersonic weapons, laser technologies) United States’s nuclear triad is failing to pose an ultimate threat to its general geopolitical rivals (Russia and the PRC) due to the high level of strategic nuclear forces of these international relations key players [5]. In 2024, the U.S. DoD published a public version of its analytical report [6], where Pentagon key military experts pinpointed that the U.S. strategic nuclear forces were to be modernized immediately to keep the U.S. nuclear triad in a combat readiness.
Apparently, the current U.S. strategic nuclear forces are an Achilles’ heel of the White House in the current era of international relations development. Consequently, Donald Trump would gain and sustain any possibilities to continue dialogue with Moscow on the issues of strategic nuclear arms reductions for maintaining the superior and hegemonic positions of Washington.
They Care About Security: New Trump’s National Security “Fighters”
In Trump’s second presidential term, Michael Waltz [7] entered the office of the U.S. National Security Advisor. New Trump’s National Security Aide is to cover issues of providing for stable communications with the Kremlin in the field of reshaping United States’ arms control approaches and mechanisms.
Furthermore, Michael Waltz has a positive background of providing for constructive national security policy with the prevailing of a realist pattern due to the framework of its activity in the position of lawmaker at the U.S. Congress.
Michael Waltz as a member of institutionalists’ coccus provided for integrated communicative and lawmaking practice for the “levitating” amidst the interests of represented State, coccus’s discursive and social practices, as well as the general principles of the Republican Party’s agenda on the national security and foreign policy issues [8].
New appointed U.S. top diplomat Marco Rubio [9] has ultra negative views towards the PRC in context of the U.S. foreign policy strengthening for opposing China in the geopolitical arena [10]. During his tenure in U.S. Senate as Representative of State of Florida, he passed the following acts: Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act [11], Hong Kong Relations Act [12], Venezuela Emergency Relief, Democracy Assistance, and Development (VERDAD) Act [13].
Marco Rubio is one of the general supporters of the “America First” concept in the field of tailoring and implementing the U.S. foreign policy courses. The Anti-China positions of Marco Rubio could exert influence on shaping the U.S.-China rivalry as deeply as could be exactly in the Donald Trump’s presidency.
Figure 1. Donald Trump’s Administration Comparison (first presidential term vs second presidential term) Complied by the author based on open sources
Eventually, the personality of Michael Waltz is linked with his chosen coccus and political group in the U.S. political system. Mike Waltz is one of the most tough and rigid representatives of the U.S. Republican Party within the framework of its foreign policy agenda. Mr. Waltz was one of the most significant “grey cardinals” of Donald J. Trump during his first presidential term, working out the decision-making on key issues of global security. In 2020, in the days after Mr. Trump authorized the drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani of Iran [14], Mr. Waltz was included in a small group of Republicans invited to the White House who received a briefing on the strike [15]. According to Austin’s speech act theory [16], it is fair to pinpoint that Mr. Waltz is fond of choosing illocutionary acts in his discourse for projection of the “illocutive force” towards audition for representation of the key elements within the framework of foreign policy agenda of Donald Trump, making it covered by unknown social practices codes.
New National Security Advisor tried to use methods of representation of future revival of the U.S.-Russia SSD as the new condition for pacification of Russia as one of the most dangerous threats towards U.S. national security in the context of providing the following code of social practice: “U.S. should not escalate strategic relations with Russia and China to maintain the U.S. peacekeeping role in the international system but if actions of the PRC and the RF exert influence on losing the “geopolitical weight” of the United States, the White House will classify their actions as the existential threat of national security of the USA [17]”. Thus, chosen communicative practice is linked with the agenda of the U.S. Republican Party and the foreign policy implementation views of Donald J. Trump. Hence, Mike Waltz is one of the most important political figures in the new Trump Administration due to the process of using direct and efficient practices of projection of necessity of the U.S. superiority strengthening through the way of forming of the formula “momentum and deterrence”.
According to Waltz’s activity in the U.S. Congress, he will be to provide for the formula of implementation of neo-deterrence policy course towards Russia via reshaping the global security environment [18], strengthening the strategic stability level and U.S. dominating role in global security agenda both. Likely, Mr. Waltz will try to use this geopolitical turbulence to get the White House a wide range of opportunities for reconceptualization of U.S.-Russia strategic ties, approving a part of key interests of the Kremlin for revival SSD among Moscow and Washington.
Furthermore, it could be done for the strengthening a level of reliance of Moscow towards the Unites States as a creditable partner. Nevertheless, this policy does not mean the establishment of a new détente because the U.S. would continue its own rigid political course of deterrence and weakening of Russia through the way of suggesting a new START Treaty on favorable conditions only for the U.S. Hence, refreshing views on the U.S.-Russia ties is the only way for implementation of new U.S. strategy of positioning Moscow a key geopolitical and ideological competitor under the auspices of the Kennedy’s strategy “Escalate-To-De-Escalate” [19].
New appointed U.S. Top Diplomat Marco Rubio, who entered the U.S. Department of State on January 20, is the most specific master-politician due to his specifics of understanding both global security and strategic stability system. Marco Rubio has more positive thoughts about stabilizing strategic ties with Russia in the field of restarting key principles of the bipolar system of arms control and nuclear inter-deterrence amidst Moscow and Washington [20]. Exactly the U.S. Secretary of State is to implement the American foreign policy course [21]. Marco Rubio in the position of the U.S. congressman tried to use more direct social practice for projecting his views on international security development issues and his lawmaking practice may be estimated as primitive apart from his counterpart Mr. Waltz. Hence, it is necessary to highlight that Marco Rubio is more temperate but exactly Mr. Rubio has a tremendous number of opportunities and tools for providing correct nuclear risk management with the implementation of the “America First” concept. Foreign policy decision-making in the U.S. has shown us that from the 1970s the U.S. National Security Advisor has more zones of influence and leverage of projection of their views on national security environment towards the President than the U.S. Top Diplomat.
Furthermore, Mr. Waltz’s ultra support of Donald Trump’s political course is making his thoughts more attractive. Apparently, President Trump could go over to Mike Waltz’s side in the period of debates and tremendous contradictions amidst the U.S. Top Diplomat and the U.S. National Security Advisor. Likely, the new President of the U.S. should choose the facilitate strategy towards the process of determining a correct course of revival of the U.S.-Russia SSD and restarting key deliberations on the next communication with the Moscow to make the fair environment of nuclear disarmament between the two large global powers with strict and ironclad obligations of parties. It is important to constant that Mr. Rubio and Mr. Waltz both demonstrated the unity of views and principles towards the support of Trump’s foreign policy course in the name of the “America First” concept.
Figure 4. Mentioning of revival of U.S.-Russia SSD by Rep. M. Waltz and Sen. Marco Rubio in the period of 117th and 118th Congresses Source: Complied by the author based on the U.S. Congress materials
Lessons Learned and Not Ignored: Strategic Stability Culmination of the New Trump’s administration
New shifts of the U.S. strategic behavior and its positions towards “golden Trump’s pivot” illuminated a representation of key approaches of revival strategic relations among the White House and Kremlin as a strategic need for fostering an efficient landscape withing the rapidly changeable international system.
Donald Trump decided to provide for a more stable and flexible national security policy for the purpose of forming an image of Russia not only as rival, but also as strategic competitor. Accordingly, it is new entangled geopolitical landscape that is to change the previous strategic priorities of “Old Trump” in favor of reconceptualization of the U.S. strategic initiatives regarding a process of geopolitical transformation of national security policymaking of the White House.
Anyway, the U.S. President-elect is to choose a correct for him and his administration an efficient communicative and social practice for an adequate determination of a new strategic path of Washington. Regrettably, Donald Trump may have not chosen a wide range of strategic pathways rationally regarding latest development of setting the tariffs by Donald Trump. Accordingly, on April 10, Donald J. Trump has announced the 90-day pause of the U.S. declared tariff war.
Apparently, the Kremlin is to fail in trusting the U.S. and President Trump personally because of existing of the major plight of a new U.S. administration in the context of reorientation of previous approaches of foreign policymaking. Revival of strategic nexus among Moscow and Washington is not a matter of rapid deal. It is no secret that new geopolitical shifts of Trump’s discourse are ultimately positive for Moscow. Nevertheless, it is relevant to pinpoint key steps for further implementation of a new U.S.-Russia architecture of strategic stability:
Step 1. Determination of a new joint pathway of improvement of a climate of the U.S.-Russia ties;
Step 2. Fostering an efficient functioning of both Russia and the U.S. diplomatic missions;
Step 3. Development and providing the both expert consultations and top-level peace talks initiatives on nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, and nuclear risk management;
Step 4. Forming the permanent joint working groups on the issues of providing a Global Zero agenda between P5 states on the sidelines of the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (NPT Review Conference);
Step 5. Development of the joint U.S.-Russia initiatives on both nuclear energy and rare earth mining for the purpose of prompting an economic growth of nations;
Doubtfully, this representation of specific steps for improving the U.S.-Russia strategic climate could be implemented soon regarding a tremendous stalemate in determination of prospects to be back to status quo withing the strategic stability dialogue. Unfortunately, it is not so possible to restore the previous strategic order withing the international anarchy, but it is clear that it is necessary to get rid of the hegemonic ambitions of the Western leaders in the name of fostering a supremacy of both the UN Chapter and Article 6 of the NPT. Emmanuel Macron is not Napoleon Bonaparte, as well as Donald J. Trump is not Abraham Lincoln. The whole international community is to understand that coercive democratization and liberalization of international regimes are the “cancer” of the contemporary international system. Strategic stability and constructive U.S.-Russia ties, apparently, are to be back on the rails but it deeply depends on the further steps of the White House. Russia has not committed its obligations on the significant strategic stability treaties of the Cold War Era, it was the U.S. that ignored these obligations and ruined the Strategic Stability Dialogue.
Conclusion
The second presidency of Donald J. Trump became a triumph not only for Americans but also for expectations for forming new fair approaches of strategic stability strengthening. Instead of the Democratic Party forecasting on the process of American exceptionalism dismantling in the Trump’s era, New Administration made a bid in favor of forming the concept of American exceptionalism under the auspices of the neo-realist agenda as the core of the new foreign policy course. Issue of formulating a new momentum of efficient arms control system depends on Trump’s efforts of facilitating between all representatives of key strategic and defense Cossus groups and his aides. We see formation of a new internal architecture of reshaping American foreign policy decision-making and its determination as the key instrument of America’s national goals implementation within the framework of strategic stability dialogue. There is no doubt that America’s strategic positioning is reforming nowadays but it is hard to talk confidentially about restarting the U.S.-Russia nexus and returning to the status quo of the arms control system during the presidency of Donald J. Trump.
CHRONOLOGY OF RECONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS BASED ON THE STATEMENTS OF THE U.S. AND RUSSIA LEADERS (2025)
January
January 22 – President Trump stated that Russia could be in a entanglement
January 24 – President Putin claims ‘Ukraine crisis’ may have been averted if Trump was president
January 25 – Russian President Vladimir Putin praised President Donald Trump and backed up his claims on the 2020 election
February
February 9 – President Donald Trump announced in an interview published Saturday that he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin
February 11 – U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine “may be Russian someday”
February 14 – Vice President JD Vance warned that the United States could hit Russia with economic and military “tools of leverage” if Russian leader Vladimir Putin would not negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine in good faith
February 16 – Top Trump officials set to meet with senior Russian officials to begin Ukraine talks
February 17 – Saudi Arabia hosted US-Russia talks on Ukraine
February 18 – The United States and Russia agreed on four principals following talks that lasted for more than four hours in Saudi Arabia
February 25 – Vladimir Putin said that “Russia is open for economic cooperation with the United States, including on energy and mining rare earth minerals”
February 28 – The U.S. and Russia agreed to begin talks on restoring the regular operations of their respective embassies and consulates
February 28 – Russian negotiators have asked their American counterparts to consider reopening US airspace to Russian aircraft and to restore direct flights between the two countries
March
March 16 – U.S. military officials claimed that Russia and China tested new offensive space capabilities
March 18 – President Trump suggest Russia to sign an immediate 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine
March 18 – Putin hold that “he has ‘reservations’ about ceasefire proposal for Ukraine”
March 18 – President Trump said he is expected to have a deliberation with Putin on Ukraine
March 19 – Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to temporarily halt attacks on energy and infrastructure targets in Ukraine after a lengthy telephone call with President Donald Trump
April
April 4 – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold that he had met with an envoy for President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine
April 4 – The Trump administration quietly lifted travel sanctions on Kirill Dmitriev
April 10 – The U.S. and Russia exchanged prisoners within the framework of a deal arranged by intelligence agencies of both parties
