MOSCOW. JULY 2, 2025. PIR PRESS. «Any Review Conference is dominated by burning international issues, primarily crisis ones, relevant for the time of their conducting. Thus, the prospects and effectiveness of the NPT 2026 Review Conference will largely depend on the degree of settlement or, on the contrary, the intensity of the current conflict situations – around Ukraine, the Middle East, India and Pakistan. What else? I hope the list, at least, will not expand», –Dr. Mikhail Lysenko, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (retired), Associate Professor of International Law Department at MGIMO University, PIR Center Advisory Board Member.
The next NPT Review Conference will start on April 27, 2026. Seems like a long time away? We at PIR Center disagree. It is high time we started preparing well in advance. This is especially true given the recent Israeli and American strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, which have questioned the role of the international legal foundations of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. That is why PIR Center interviewed leading Russian and foreign experts and diplomats, including those who participated in the NPT Review processes throughout different years, on the prospects of the 2026 NPT Review Conference. The goal of the project is to highlight the key challenges and opportunities facing the upcoming Conference.
The result of this work was the creation of a special section on the PIR Center website – “Experts on the Prospects of the NPT 2026 Review Conference”, which united comments from 17 experts from different countries: Russia, Canada, China, France, Kazakhstan, the UAE, and the U.S.
Among those who shared their vision of the prospects of the NPT 2026 Review Conference were: Dr. Ildar Akhtamzyan, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and Russian Foreign Policy, MGIMO University, PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Mr. Hamad Alkaabi, Ambassador of the UAE to the Federal Republic of Austria and International Organizations in Vienna; Prof. Alexey Arbatov, Head of Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, Academician of RAS, PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Mr. Andrey Belousov, Minister Plenipotentiary, Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Mission to the UN Office and other International Organizations in Geneva, PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Mr. Alexander Bulychev, Head of the Nuclear Security and Nonproliferation Office, Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Mr. Dastan Eleukenov, Chairman of the Board at Kazakhstan Agency for International Development (KazAID), PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Mr. Zacharie Gross, Minister Plenipotentiary, Counselor, Embassy of the French Republic to Russia; Mr. Zhan Kosherbaev, Senior Lecturer at the Department of International Relations and World Economy, Faculty of International Relations, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University; Prof. Vladimir Kuchinov, Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations of the Institute of International Relations, National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Dr. Mikhail Lysenko, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (retired), Associate Professor of International Law Department at MGIMO University, PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Mr. Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow at the Institute for International Studies and Lecturer at the Department of Oriental Studies, MGIMO University; Dr. Tariq Rauf, Former Head of Verification and Security Policy Coordination, Office reporting to Director General, PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Ms. Daria Selezneva, IMEMO Junior Research Fellow; Prof. Li Sikui, Professor at the Institute of Regional and Country Studies, University of International Business and Economics (Beijing, China); Mr. Dmitry Stefanovich, Research Fellow of the Sector of Military Economy and Innovations of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Mr. Victor Vasiliev, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), PIR Center Advisory Board Member; Mr. Igor Vishnevetskiy, Independent Expert, Deputy Director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry (2021 – 2023), PIR Center Advisory Board Member.
Most experts agreed that the 2026 Conference will be a continuation of the NPT Review Process of the previous stages of 2015 and 2022: the final document will not be adopted, and the event will be routine.
“Given that no major changes occur in the international situation, the 2026 NPT Review Conference is likely to take place and proceed as usual, resulting in the adoption of nominal final document,” Vladimir Kuchinov notes, who is an associate Professor of the Department of International Relations of the Institute of International Relations, National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, PIR Center Advisory Board Member.
Igor Vishnevetskiy, Independent Expert, Deputy Director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry (2021 – 2023), PIR Center Advisory Board Member, emphasizes the uncertainty of the outcome of the future Conference: “Predicting the outcome of the 2026 NPT Review Conference is challenging. The results will depend on the geopolitical situation and the positions parties bring to the table. If the conference were held this year, reaching any agreement would likely be impossible. The outcome would probably mirror that of the previous review conference, where parties failed to agree on a final document. One can hope that by 2026, the geopolitical climate will improve, enabling parties to find common ground at the negotiating table. At this moment, further hypothetical speculation is hardly appropriate.”
Noting the prospects for the upcoming 2026 NPT Review Conference as “pessimistic,” Viktor Vasiliev, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), PIR Center Advisory Board Member, proposed his solution for breaking the deadlock in the NPT Review Process: “What is needed? Common sense. Back to common sense and reason.”
Hovewer, among the alarming prospects there is also a share of optimism. For example, Zacharie Gross, Minister Plenipotentiary, Counselor, Embassy of the French Republic to Russia, expressed “three hopes” regarding the 2026 NPT Review Conference: “it will unambiguously highlight the key contribution of nuclear energy to limiting climate change; that it will be in a position to endorse a robust deal on Iran’s nuclear program; and that it will offer a meaningful opportunity for dialogue between nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states on nuclear transparency, risk management and reporting on the implementation of article VI of the NPT. Expectations are high for Russia to contribute constructively on all three dimensions.”
Hamad Alkaabi, Ambassador of the UAE to the Federal Republic of Austria and International Organizations in Vienna, also expects practical results from the Conference: “The UAE believes the 2026 Conference presents an opportunity to reinforce the Treaty’s objectives through steps such as nuclear risk reduction, enhanced transparency, and the revitalization of disarmament dialogue. Continued support for peaceful nuclear cooperation under comprehensive safeguards must also remain a priority. While political divergences may make consensus difficult, a forward-looking and balanced outcome document remains within reach, provided there is sufficient political will and readiness to engage in constructive compromise.”
Full versions of the expert comments are available in a special section on PIR Center’s website, in either Russian and English. In this section you can also read opinions on the significance of the NPT indefinite extension in 1995.
You can also read the selected PIR Center’s publications on the 1995 Review and Extension Conference in a special section here. It is also available in both languages: English, Russian.
