№ 8 (66), 2025. PIR Center and MGIMO University held an expert seminar on Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) in international security, arms control, and nonproliferation

MOSCOW. MARCH 18, 2025. PIR PRESS. «The importance of open-source data exploration is beyond doubt. Modern tools — including commercial satellite imagery, geolocation tools, and social networks — enable a more comprehensive analysis of the military and political activities of states. From my own experience, I know that a competent analysis of open sources allows for an accurate assessment of the situation and a reliable forecast of its development. It is encouraging that PIR Center and MGIMO University have taken the initiative to develop a methodology for using OSINT in research on international security, arms control, and WMDs nonproliferation. This methodology will serve as a valuable starting point for young disarmament specialists in their research», — Lieutenant-General (retired) Evgeny Buzhinskiy, Chairman of PIR Center’s Executive Board, Professor of the Institute for Advanced Strategic Studies, HSE University.

On March 6, as part of the “International Security” Master’s Program (jointly conducted by PIR Center and MGIMO University), PIR Center held an expert seminar dedicated to the methodology and practice of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) in research on international security, arms control, and WMDs nonproliferation. The event covered key methodologies for working with open data, their application in global security analysis, and the prospects for integrating OSINT into the practical activities of international security specialists.

The seminar was opened by Dr. Vladimir A. Orlov, Founding Director of PIR Center and Professor at MGIMO University, who welcomed the participants and guests. In his speech, he emphasized the significance of the seminar’s agenda, noting that it is part of the broader Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) program. He stressed that modern research should be not only academic but also applied, and that OSINT training must account for real-world challenges in international security while developing skills in working with large datasets.

The keynote speech was delivered by Mr. Sergey D. Semenov, Research Fellow at PIR Center, who presented the report “Methodology and Practice of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) for International Security, Arms Control, and WMD Nonproliferation Studies.” The report, jointly published by PIR Center and MGIMO University, was developed as part of the “Global Security, Strategic Stability, and Arms Control” project under the “Priority-2030” Strategic Academic Leadership Program.

The idea for this report emerged during the preparation of PIR Center’s analytical publication “New Nuclear Nine? Assessing Nuclear Proliferation Threats in the World.” During its elaboration, it became evident that traditional sources of information often fail to provide a complete picture of existing threats. Working with open sources — including satellite imagery, government databases, and digital analytics — helped fill these gaps.

The report was specifically designed to assist students enrolled in the “International Security” MA Program, jointly conducted by PIR Center and MGIMO University. Sergey Semenov highlighted the growing role of Open-Source Intelligence in global security and international relations, as it enables the acquisition of critical data without relying on traditional intelligence methods. He also underscored the link between Russia’s technological leadership and international security, emphasizing the need for specialists capable of analyzing developments using OSINT tools.

During the seminar, experts examined various OSINT techniques, including:

• Analysis of satellite imagery to monitor strategic sites,
• Use of social networks and media sources to identify trends,
• Work with government databases and corporate reports,
• Utilization of search engines and specialized programs for data collection.

One of the key topics discussed was nuclear nonproliferation. Sergey Semenov presented updated assessments of potential nuclear weapons proliferation, exploring methods for identifying signs of nuclear weapons development in various countries. The discussion covered indicators such as political and diplomatic signals, accumulation of strategic materials, and organizational changes within defense agencies.

The expert also introduced the concept of the “New Nuclear Nine” — a term referring to countries that may seek to acquire nuclear weapons in the coming years. This analysis involved monitoring government procurement activities, academic research trends, and international negotiations related to nuclear development.

The seminar concluded with a lively discussion, during which participants explored opportunities for students of the “International Security” MA Program to engage in PIR Center’s analytical projects. Suggestions were made for involving students in practical OSINT research and international security monitoring as part of PIR Center’s volunteer corps.

The full report is now available on the PIR Center website (in Russian).

This report has been published in the PIR Center’s Reports Series (№ 44) as part of the “Global Security, Strategic Stability, and Arms Control” project under the “Priority-2030” Strategic Academic Leadership Program.

Keywords: OSINT; Global Security; Nuclear Nonproliferation; Arms Control

OSINT

F4/SOR – 25/03/18