№ 9, 2024. PIR Center Publishes a New Article “International Terrorism: Threats Has Not Gone Away, Threat Has Lurked”

MOSCOW. MARCH 26, 2024. PIR PRESS. «I have commissioned this article to PIR Consultant Leonid Tsukanov on international terrorism new threats last October. I have signed it to print last month. For some of my colleagues, the topic did not seem like of high priority. So, we share it with our readers on this tragic day. Today, it would not be professional and wise to make conclusions on the roots and true plannets of the Crocus Hall tragedy. I cannot accept copy-pasting of “assessments” from the Western media based on “reliable sources”. It may be too simplistic to be true. Emotions do not help either. We should wait a while, before we have all facts, in a comprehensive way. It is particularly important because it seems that we have been facing a complex, multi-layer combination, a “matryoshka” ofvactors, and not a single hostile actor. All significant terrorist organization are international by nature. Fed with huge money and endless hatred, they are still rational players, well connecting with other violent actors like extremists. They travel the world much easier than one may think. They have no borders, particularly in zones of poverty or zones of conflict, whether this is Gorno-Badahshan, Afghanistan, Idlib, Ukraine, you name it. And one more point. Instead of simplistic or emotional reactions, one always should try to respond to “qui protest” question: who does benefit from a terrorist action?»*, — Dr. Vladimir Orlov, PIR Center Founding Director, Professor at MGIMO University.

On March 23, 2024, PIR Center published an article by Mr. Leonid Tsukanov, Consultant of the PIR Center`s Global and Regional Security: New Ideas for Russia Program, on the topic “International Terrorism: Threats Has Not Gone Away, Threat Has Lurked”.

The events of the past few days have confirmed that international terrorism, especially its radical Islamist offshoot (which has de facto become synonymous with international terrorism as such), remains a serious challenge to global security. Radical organizations still have the resources to carry out acts of intimidation and use every opportunity to remind themselves. In addition, the high level of adaptability of jihadists to new conditions of struggle makes radical organizations virtually immortal, which is why the defeat of one center of power does not guarantee victory over the Islamists as a whole.

In this article, Mr. Leonid Tsukanov analyzes the current state of the jihadist movement, identifying the most acute problems it faces. The author notes the possibility of the consolidation of new extremist caliphates in Africa and Afghanistan; the growth of the terrorist threat in Europe and Southeast Asia. In addition, the threat posed by radical Islamists could potentially re-emerge in other areas of security (such as cyberspace). It is summarized that despite the serious damage inflicted on the terrorist underground by the world community, international terrorist organizations remain a serious adversary and have significant potential for revival.

The preparation of the article was carried out for the Security Index Yearbook 2024/2025 Global Edition, which is preparing within the framework of the joint project of PIR Center and MGIMO University “Global Security, Strategic Stability, and Arms Control” under the auspices of the “Priority-2030” Strategic Academic Leadership Program.

*The source of the quote by Dr. Vladimir Orlov is his authorial Telegram channel Sobesednik-na-Piru.

Key words: Terrorism, Global Security

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E16/MIN – 24/03/26