MOSCOW, DECEMBER 12, 2019. PIR PRESS – “Panels, presentations and discussions were very illuminating. And I also want to thank all of the participants for taking seriously the injunction which was made yesterday to be constructive and open-minded. We were able to have open discussion on these topics”, – Jeff Mankoff, Senior Fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies
On December 10-11, PIR Center and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) co-hosted a two-day joint seminar , which brought together experts from Russia and the United States. The theme of the seminar was “Reducing Nuclear Risks During Great Power Competition”. The event was held as part of the biennial cooperation program between the PIR Center and the CSIS.
PIR Center Director Vladimir Orlov and CSIS Senior Fellow Jeff Mankoff inaugurated the meeting and welcomed the participants. Participants were also offered theses presented by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov.
The joint seminar consisted of 5 sessions:
During the discussion, the following issues were raised:
1) how to define Great Power competition and assess risks, coping mechanisms for chronic, acute and restrained competition, how escalation in a new landscape can be prevented, and roles of signaling, CBMs, risk reduction methods;
2) the need to extend the New START, consequences of the termination of the New START Treaty, and collapse of the INF Treaty;
3) prevention of arms placement in outer space, how to ensure security of critical infrastructure in outer space, space capabilities of third countries;
4) challenges to strategic stability, steps to decrease the risk of an unintended escalation, how to involve third countries in the arms control process;
5) impact of Artificial Intelligence on strategic stability, measures to increase transparency in cyberspace, current and potential future proliferation and technology development trends, and related nuclear threats.
Brief presentations were made by Gen. Peter Zwack, Brigadier General of the U.S. Army (ret.), Dr. Vladimir Orlov, PIR Center Director, Dr. David Santoro, Director and Senior Fellow for Nuclear Policy at the Pacific Forum, Dr. Alexey Arbatov, member of the PIR Center Advisory Board, Dr. Amy Woolf, Specialist in nuclear weapons policy, Congressional Research Service, Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinskiy, Chairman of the PIR Center’s Executive Board, Dr. Philipp C. Bleek, Associate Professor of Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, Dr. Andrei Malov, Member of the PIR Center Advisory Board, Dr. Robert S. Wilson, Aerospace Corporation Analyst, Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, Member of the PIR Center Advisory Board, Dr. Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Program Director for Europe and Central Asia, Mr. Andrey Baklitskiy, PIR Center Consultant, Dr. Margaret E. Kosal, Associate Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology, Dr. Vadim Kozyulin, Member of the PIR Center Executive Board.
Gen. Viktor Koltunov, Deputy Director for Research at the Institute of Strategic Stability, Gen. Feodor Ladygin, Colonel General (retired), Member of the PIR Center Advisory Board, Mr. Andrei Malyugin, Senior Counsellor of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Dr. Sergey Ponamarev, Associate Professor at the Engineering Academy, RUDN-University, Mrs. Roksana Gabidullina, CSIS’s Russia and Eurasia Program Manager and Research Associate, Amb. William Courtney, RAND’s Adjunct Senior Fellow (former U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia; former Deputy U.S. Negotiator for Defense and Space in the U.S.-Soviet Nuclear and Space Talks in Geneva), also contributed to the discussion.
The results of the two days seminar were summed up by PIR Center Director Vladimir Orlov and Senior Researcher at the CSIS Jeffrey Mankoff. In particular, the plan for the next joint seminar in 2020 was announced.
“The seminar was most timely, and the content of the discussions and their intellectual level exceeded all my expectations. As a result, we have a set of practical recommendations. In conditions when the Great Power competition inevitably increases, our task is to formulate proposals that will help reduce the risk of confrontation and conflict. Dialogue is especially valuable in difficult times”, – PIR Center Director Vladimir Orlov noted.