The future of the nuclear nonproliferation regime was discussed at the PIR Center expert seminar

June 5, 2023

JUNE 5. ZVENIGOROD. PIR PRESS. “Rumors of the death of the NPT have been exaggerated. At the same time, it would be a mistake to underestimate the scale and depth of the current threats to the nuclear nonproliferation regime,” – Sergey Semenov, PIR Center Research Fellow.

On June 4, on the sidelines of the XXII PIR Center International School on Global Security, an expert seminar “At the Threshold of the ‘Nuclear Club’: Nuclear Nonproliferation Issues between 1993 and 2023” was held.

As part of the event, it was possible to discuss the current state of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, as well as the main challenges that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty faces in the context of the transformation of the world order. The question “how long is the queue to the ‘nuclear club’?” became the unspoken leitmotif of the conversation.

Dr. Vladimir Orlov, PIR Center Founding Director, MGIMO University professor, in his speech touched upon key aspects of international security policy, and also reminded the audience of the importance of maintaining an expert dialogue on sensitive issues in an era of turbulence.

Sergey Semenov, PIR Center Research Fellow, spoke about the current state of the NPT regime, briefly describing the main challenges to the nonproliferation regime, and also provided data on key near-threshold powers in terms of the development of military nuclear programs.

Dr. Alexander Fedorov spoke about the significance of the Public Report “A New Challenge after the Cold War: Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction” for Russian and global WMD non-proliferation practice, and also briefly listed the main milestones in the transformation of the Russian approach. As a reminder, earlier Dr. Fedorov, within the framework of PIR Center project “Oral History of Nuclear Nonproliferation: Voices from Russia”, gave a long interview on the subject of Public Reports. You can get acquainted with them via the link.

In addition, thematic publications of PIR Center were presented at the seminar, in particular, the report “A New Nuclear Nine? Assessing Threats to the Spread of Nuclear Weapons in the World” and “Selected Works” by Gennady M. Evstafiev (1938–2013), Lieutenant General of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Senior Advisor and Senior Vice President of PIR Center (2003–2013). Both publications are dedicated to the 85th anniversary of the birth of Gen. Evstafiev and are intended to share his methodological and research developments with a wide readership.

Also, within the framework of the seminar, the participants had the opportunity to get acquainted with the “Anthology” of Roland M. Timerbaev (1927-2019), Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, President (1994-1998) and Chairman of PIR Center Executive Board (1999-2010).

Presenting new books, Dr. Orlov emphasized the importance of preserving historical memory, including the memory of the efforts of Russian specialists in the field of designing an arms control regime. In addition, a review of the publication “New Nuclear Nine? Assessing Threats to the Spread of Nuclear Weapons in the World”, received from the Presidential Directorate for Interregional Relations.

The event aroused great interest among the audience. The attention was focused on a wide range of issues – from the prospects for the emergence of new full-fledged nuclear powers and the crisis of the nonproliferation regime as such to the technical aspects of international security and export control.

Key words: Nuclear Nonproliferation

E3/TSU – 06/23