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The Security Index Occasional Paper Series Came Out With The New Report «Iranian Conservatives` Action Plan – Joint And Comprehensive?» By Yulia Sveshnikova

June 18, 2021

MOSCOW, JUNE 18, 2021. PIR PRESS. The Security Index Occasional Paper Series came out with the new report «Iranian Conservatives` Action Plan –  joint and comprehensive?» by Yulia Sveshnikova.

This research paper was prepared in the run-up to the presidential election in Iran on June 18, 2021. The paper provides a detailed analysis of the conservatives’ position on the JCPOA and examines the reasons for the weakening of the reformists in Iranian political life. In particular, the author links the economic failures of the Rouhani government to corruption and inefficient management practices, and not only to the restoration of the sanctions regime under the Trump administration.

Key findings:

  • The presidential elections in Iran do not play a significant role due to the weakness of the institution of the president and the government, and the redistribution of power in the country is far from taking place at the expense of this democratic facade. The elections in the country only confirm the already formed request for a particular foreign policy.
  • It is the preservation of the current regime in Tehran that remains the key point, and the nuclear program can be a subject of bargaining, a means of increasing prestige or serve as a deterrent.
  • The growing popularity of conservatives in Iran comes amid a deteriorating economic situation, an apolitical mood among Iranians, and frustration with the reformist government’s ability to ease sanctions pressure.
  • Conservatives, taking advantage of the failures of Rouhani’s policy, call for dealing with Iran “from within”.
  • The situation for the next president of Iran will be difficult due to the pressure of economic problems and limited opportunities to negotiate and reach an agreement. This does not mean that a country will seek to build its own nuclear weapons or decide to withdraw from the NPT.

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