MOSCOW. FEBRUARY 7, 2022. PIR PRESS. The Security Index Occasional Paper Series came out with the new report “Prospects for the formation of a collective security architecture in the Persian Gulf region” by Anna Lashina.
For a long period of time, the Persian Gulf has been considered one of the most unstable regions of the world, where the interests of both local and global players are intertwined. At the moment, there is no comprehensive security system in the region: instability and disagreements, as well as the presence of extra-regional actors complicate the situation. The goal of this research paper is to analyze the factors influencing instability in the Persian Gulf region, as well as the prospects for creating a security system in it.
Key findings:
- The Persian Gulf region is one of the tensest and conflict-ridden both in the Middle East and around the world. Instability is explained by the struggle for leadership between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the interest of Western powers in influence and military presence in the Gulf, as well as the activities of terrorists.
- Accelerated militarization, the arms race, the “pumping” of the countries of the region with the latest types of weapons and the development of the most sensitive technologies of the nuclear fuel cycle create prerequisites for a further increase in tension and the loosening of the fragile balance of power.
- At the present stage, the creation of inclusive security mechanisms in the Persian Gulf is in demand, which will contribute to the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East and the elimination of existing contradictions and acute problems in the region.
- The willingness of some monarchies of the peninsula to develop a dialogue with Israel means a gradual departure from the ideology of positioning this country as the main enemy of the Arab countries. In this regard, at this stage in the region, Israel has only one ardent opponent who does not even recognize its existence – Iran.
- The growing Turkish-Qatari tandem is able to compete with Saudi Arabia as a leader in the Persian Gulf.
- In the absence of a security system, it is necessary to form an effective mechanism, taking into account the involvement of both regional and external players. However, first of all, the region should begin with the elimination of existing contradictions and acute problems of the region.
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