№ 42 (100), 2025. PIR Center Publishes a New Occasional Paper of Security Index on the Sahel Region: Political Transformation, Security Dynamics and Opportunities for Russia

«The Sahel is experiencing not merely a change of external partners, but a profound political transformation: the states of the region are abandoning outdated security models and forming their own mechanisms of sovereign development. Those actors capable of combining security assistance with investments in the economy, infrastructure, and human capital will play a strategic role in the region’s future», – Ms. Alexandra Zubenko, PIR Center Consultant.

A new issue of the Security Index Occasional Paper has been released, devoted to the topic “The Sahel Region: Political Transformation, Security Dynamics and Opportunities for Russia.”

The paper analyzes the political transformation processes in Sahel countries, the consequences of the end of France’s Operation Barkhane, the evolution of terrorist threats, and the formation of new military-political alliances, such as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Special attention is given to issues of natural resource control, the development of gold mining and the uranium sector, as well as competition among external actors – Russia, China, Turkey, and Western states.

The author examines the impact of crises in Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic on cross-border security, the dynamics of the humanitarian situation, and the growing number of internally displaced persons. A significant part of the paper is devoted to the expanding cooperation between Russia and the countries of the region, including security collaboration, economic projects, capacity building, and the 2025 agreements on peaceful nuclear cooperation with Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

This occasional paper was prepared within the framework of PIR Center and MGIMO University Consortium under the auspices of the Priority-2030 Strategic Academic Leadership Program.

Key Points:

• The Sahel remains one of the most unstable regions in the world, facing rising terrorism, organized crime, weak state institutions, humanitarian crises, and large-scale population displacement.

• The end of France’s Operation Barkhane and the withdrawal of its troops did not reduce violence: militant groups strengthened their positions, and the number of attacks and casualties in the tri-border area (Mali-Niger-Burkina Faso) reached record levels.

• Terrorism is intensifying rapidly: groups affiliated with the Islamic State and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)*, a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation, are expanding territorial control, increasing attacks, and using gold mining areas for financing.

• The political map of the region has changed: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger withdrew from ECOWAS and formed the Alliance of Sahel States, proclaiming a course toward sovereignty and abandoning Western security models.

• Control over natural resources has become a key factor of competition: Niger’s uranium and the gold deposits of Burkina Faso and Mali attract external players, while informal mining expands and fuels the shadow economy.

• The humanitarian situation is deteriorating: the number of internally displaced persons has risen to nearly 3 million, and 29 million people require urgent assistance.

• Regional crises in Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic exacerbate instability, spreading weapons, radical networks, and migration flows across the Sahel.

• Russia’s role in the region is steadily expanding – from military cooperation to education, food assistance, investments in mineral extraction, and infrastructure development.

• In 2025, Russia and Sahel countries concluded peaceful nuclear energy cooperation agreements (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso), opening new avenues for engagement in energy, medicine, and workforce development.

• Multidimensional Russia-Sahel cooperation is forming an alternative to Western approaches, emphasizing sovereignty and the development of national capabilities.

* terrorist organizations banned in the territory of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: Sahel

SAH

E16/SHAH – 25/11/21