Gossip Column
Ambassador Roland M. Timerbaev was one of the authors of the NPT and founders of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, a Soviet and Russian Ambassador, and our colleague at PIR Center for many years (1994–2010). He often became bored and restless at major international conferences because he did not like to listen to the platitudes that were often repeated there and was very happy to have coffee breaks. It was live communication with real people — exactly what he really valued — and the opportunity to learn the latest news, as well as unconfirmed information and “expert gossip” in the corridors, on the sidelines, over coffee… Ambassador Timerbaev would joyfully say at such moments: “Well, now is the time for some good gossip”.
Hence the title of this column. PIR Center is not responsible for the accuracy of what our employees and authors heard in the corridors and on the margins of the conferences and told us without reference to the source. Although we know what these sources are.
We’ve heard the gossip that after Trump’s inauguration, contacts between Russia and the United States at the level of heads of state may resume to resolve current conflicts… or not?
The comment below was first published (in Russian) on the Telegram channel “Vatfor” by Dmitry Stefanovich, a member of the PIR Center Advisory Board: Part 1 & Part 2.
The Americans have always had a “magic button,” a switch that could end the hostilities in Ukraine. In fact, they have several: cutting off arms supplies, access to intelligence, and communications.
However, such a scenario is accompanied by catastrophic consequences for their entire system of alliances and partnerships.
Consequently, to mitigate such a threat, pacification in Ukraine will be followed by simultaneous strengthening of the support system for everyone else. That includes multiplying various unpleasant things at the frontlines.
What we get out of it is another thing to contemplate further.
However…
For everyone lacing up their shoes, ready to “get on the negotiation track,” there are two things to consider.
First, Trump is not yet president, and he cannot and will not be able to make any decisions for another two months.
Second, in 2016, he also had numerous initiatives to build relations with Russia. The unyielding wall of the deep state and the media effectively blocked all of them. Trump must undertake radical transformations in the American government system to overcome this swamp. There is no reason to think that a president — even one as unconventional as Trump, with only one term ahead of him — will succeed in this.
Read more on the topic:
- Océane Van Geluwe. US-Soviet/Russian Relations in the Times of Crises: Lessons Learned from the Esalen Track 1.5 Diplomacy / Ed. Ksenia Mineeva, Leonid Tsukanov. M.: PIR Center, 2023. – 19 p. – (Security Index Occasional Paper Series). URL: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SIGLO-4-38-Van-Geluwe.pdf
- Dmitry Trenin. On a New Global Order and Its Nuclear Dimension. An Interview / Ed. Elena Karnaukhova, Leonid Tsukanov. M.: PIR Center, 2023. – 20 p. – (Security Index Occasional Paper Series). URL: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SI-INT-2-36-Trenin.pdf
- A Fortochka In Increasingly Heated Russian-American Relations / Edward Kendall. M.: PIR Press, 2022. – 15 p. – (Security Index Occasional Paper Series). URL: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/A-Fortochka-In-Increasingly-Heated-Russian-American-Relations.pdf
Key words: Russia-US; Strategic Stability; International Security
RUF
F4/SOR – 24/11/12
