Gossip Column
Ambassador Roland M. Timerbaev was one of the authors of the NPT and founders of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, a Soviet and Russian Ambassador, and our colleague at PIR Center for many years (1994–2010). He often became bored and restless at major international conferences because he did not like to listen to the platitudes that were often repeated there and was very happy to have coffee breaks. It was live communication with real people — exactly what he really valued — and the opportunity to learn the latest news, as well as unconfirmed information and “expert gossip” in the corridors, on the sidelines, over coffee… Ambassador Timerbaev would joyfully say at such moments: “Well, now is the time for some good gossip”.
Hence the title of this column. PIR Center is not responsible for the accuracy of what our employees and authors heard in the corridors and on the margins of the conferences and told us without reference to the source. Although we know what these sources are.
We have heard the gossip that the appointment of a new Russian Ambassador to the United States may not occur soon, signaling a diplomatic vacuum amid the growing tensions between the two States. Some experts believe the Kremlin sees little value in deepening dialogue with Washington, given the ongoing relationship crisis, despite the consistent emphasis on the importance of such dialogue.
The increasing tensions between Russia and the United States are evident in several key areas, including the dialogue on strategic stability. Furthermore, the topic of arms control is again coming to the forefront. However, unlike previous years when the parties regularly held bilateral consultations, the current situation could be more conducive to establishing dialogue. On the contrary, several recent statements from both sides suggest that neither Moscow nor Washington is striving for new rounds of negotiations on strategic stability.
For a significant period, the format of bilateral meetings on these issues has been the cornerstone of international security. Nonetheless, in recent months, the situation has undergone a notable change. The lack of mutual trust has made negotiations highly unlikely, painting a grim picture of current affairs.
Many analysts fear that it could lead to a dangerous escalation. Without direct and open dialogue at a high level, the risk of misinterpretation and misunderstanding is heightened. In this context, the issues of nuclear weapons and arms control are particularly critical. The potential loss of deterrence mechanisms, a grave consequence, could lead to catastrophic outcomes.
Thus, it is unlikely that we will expect the appointment of a new Russian Ambassador to the U.S. and the resumption of bilateral dialogue on strategic stability. It is becoming increasingly clear that both sides are preparing for a prolonged phase of estrangement and confrontation.
Read more on the topic:
- Océane Van Geluwe. US-Soviet/Russian Relations in the Times of Crises: Lessons Learned from the Esalen Track 1.5 Diplomacy / Ed. Ksenia Mineeva, Leonid Tsukanov. M.: PIR Center, 2023. – 19 p. – (Security Index Occasional Paper Series). URL: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SIGLO-4-38-Van-Geluwe.pdf
- Dmitry Trenin. On a New Global Order and Its Nuclear Dimension. An Interview / Ed. Elena Karnaukhova, Leonid Tsukanov. M.: PIR Center, 2023. – 20 p. – (Security Index Occasional Paper Series). URL: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SI-INT-2-36-Trenin.pdf
- Way Out of the Arms Control Pandemic / Alexander Kolbin. M.: PIR Press, 2022. – 18 p. – (Security Index Occasional Paper Series). URL: https://pircenter.org/en/editions/security-index-4-31-2022/
- A Fortochka In Increasingly Heated Russian-American Relations / Edward Kendall. M.: PIR Press, 2022. – 15 p. – (Security Index Occasional Paper Series). URL: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/A-Fortochka-In-Increasingly-Heated-Russian-American-Relations.pdf
- The Future of U.S.-Russian Arms Control: Principles of Engagement and New Approaches / Ed. Nikita Degtyarev, Semenov Sergey. Moscow: PIR Press, 2021 .– 17 p. – (Series «Security Index Occasional Paper Series»). URL: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/21-03-17-INF-SI-INT-%E2%84%967-22-2021.pdf
Key words: Global Security; Nuclear Weapons; Russia-US; Strategic Stability
RUF
F4/SOR – 24/09/16
