Chronology

Russia and India signed an international agreement on cooperation in the construction of 4 additional units at Kudankulam, as well as on the construction of nuclear power plants according to Russian projects on new sites in India
05.12.2008
The end of the strategic offensive arms reduction period under the Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START I Treaty)
05.12.2001
The Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START I), transformed by the Lisbon Protocol of 1992 comes into force
05.12.1994
The adoption of Memoranda on Security Guarantees on the part of Russia, the U.S. and the UK. The memoranda are needed because of Ukraine, Byelorussia and Kazakhstan joining NPT.
05.12.1994
Ukraine joins the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapons state.
05.12.1994
A U.S. sea-borne aircraft with an atomic bomb onboard crashes 200 miles from Okinawa.
05.12.1965
The first world nuclear propelled surface ship, the icebreaker Lenin, is commissioned.
05.12.1957
France sets up an atomic bomb development committee within the Commissariat for Atomic Energy.
05.12.1956
PIR PRESS LOGO

PIR PRESS NEWS

04.12.2020

"The development of nuclear energy in Saudi Arabia is a forward-looking and important task. The State Atomic Energy Corporation “Rosatom” has every chance to become one of the KSA’s key partners in the development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy because it already has extensive experience in working with nuclear newcomer countries in difficult climatic conditions with lack of the necessary infrastructure", ‒ Inna Rodina, PIR Center intern. 

01.12.2020

“It is difficult for me to say how many pillars PIR Center is based on, but one of them is definitely the interns. Their hard work, intelligence, and creativity make a substantial contribution to our work», ‒ Sergey Semenov, Nuclear Nonproliferation & Russia Program Coordinator.

27.11.2020

International security is not a center of the world, but a reflection of profound processes that nowadays are characterized by a growing randomness and shrinking planning horizon. Confidence, privacy and confidentiality of diplomacy are deteriorating. Ensuring security requires not only technical, but also political decisions. Under such circumstances the aim of the Russian foreign policy is to find a balance between development and security amidst an incoming new wave of globalization. To secure its status of a great power, Russia needs to preserve its relevance among other players and play a role of additional element to the situation of unsteady equilibrium.

iSi Methodology

iSi is determined in accordance with an original method developed by the PIR Center. It indicates the general level of the state of international security in the military, political, economic, and environmental spheres. It also takes into account the impact of nongovernmental actors (in particular, terrorist activity).

The most important characteristics of iSi are its comprehensiveness, robustness, and clarity. A great number of the factors that directly effect international security are reflected in iSi in a concentrated form. They include: the threat of global nuclear war, the number and intensity of local conflicts, the type of political relations between various countries and international organizations, the intensity and scale of terrorist activity, the stability of the global economy, and the threat posed by man-made catastrophes and epidemics.

The structure of iSi consists of two main parts. The first is the basic Index value. It is calculated on the basis of expert analyses of the probability of the occurrence of one or another global or regional event that would have a direct impact on international security. Each such event is given a certain score on the scale we have developed.

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In our calculations, total points increase as the probability of various events that might disrupt international security decreases, and, correspondingly, they decrease with an increase in the probability of such events. The total of the points for each factor is the iSi base value, a quantity calculated once per year. Each type of factor (military, political, economic, man-made catastrophe, and terrorist) has is “weighted” according to a scale of priorities and given an appropriate coefficient.  

The second part of iSi is calculated by evaluating actual events that have an influence on international security during a particular month. Each such event is assessed both according to its positive or negative influence on international security and according to its degree of influence (weak, moderate, or strong) according to the point scale we have developed. The degree of influence of each such factor is corrected depending on the country or region in which the event took place. In order to do this, we have developed a coefficient for the significance of particular regions (from 1 to 9). The number of positive points for each individual factor indicates the event's contribution to international security; negative marks indicate the negative influence of a particular factor.

The iSi Index, therefore, is calculated according to the following formula:

 p1815_1.jpg

 

 

Where

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= coefficient “weight” of global factors;

 

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= coefficient “weight” of regional factors;

 

 p1815_4.jpg

 = coefficient “weight” of local factors;

 

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 = coefficient indicating the importance of an individual region.

 

We have been calculating iSi on a monthly basis since July 2006. The increase or decrease in its absolute value indicates the trends in international security during the period in question, including both their direction and strength. The sum of all points provides the basic value of iSi, which shows how distant the global situation is at that moment from the “ideal”—when there are no threats at all.

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