Trump is either mistaken, “twisting the facts,” or simply engaging in wishful thinking. There are no negotiations on reducing strategic arsenals taking place right now.
Sporadic discussions do occur, but they are exclusively bilateral. Without a doubt, such contacts – whether at the expert or diplomatic level – must continue and even intensify. Nuclear arms control is currently in a vacuum, and a prolonged pause here is unacceptable. We definitely have things to discuss – at least between the Americans and the Russians.
However, as of today, the parties are still unprepared for high-quality, systematic work on arms control. China remains aloof, and the hypothetical “trilateral format” for nuclear arms control is nothing but a myth and fairy tales for the uninitiated.
From the perspective of our country’s strategic interests, such a format would theoretically be excellent news. In practice, however, there is no ground for it yet.
The summit in Shenzhen begins in a month. Hypothetically, it is a great platform for a trilateral breakthrough. In practice, though, I do not believe we will hear anything tangible from there regarding arms control.
Let’s just hope the opposite doesn’t happen, and the Americans don’t drag everyone else into disputes over nuclear testing thresholds – trying to figure out who blew up what (or didn’t) in Nevada or at Lop Nur. Instead, all three could simply agree to simultaneously ratify the CTBT. But this is just a theory that is not meant to come true (and I am not even counting the eternal American parable about the role of Congress, where, by the way, elections are coming up soon).
Nevertheless, let Trump and Xi try to prove me wrong – I would be only too glad.
This piece comments on the news.
Keywords: Arms Control
AC
E16/NOS – 26/11/05
