№ 5 (63), 2025. PIR Center prepared the report on open-source intelligence (OSINT) in international security and nonproliferation research

MOSCOW. FEBRUARY 21, 2025. PIR PRESS. «The idea for this Report emerged while preparing PIR Center’s analytical report New Nuclear Nine? Assessing Nuclear Proliferation Threats in the World. During its development, the PIR Center research team encountered limitations in the available source base for analyzing risks and threats to the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The primary sources of information included newspapers, specialized publications, politicians’ statements, and materials from official websites, which inevitably resulted in certain ‘blind spots,’» – Sergey Semenov, Research Fellow at PIR Center.

PIR Center has completed work on the Report Methodology and Practice of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) in Research on International Security, Arms Control, and the Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. The author of the Report is Sergey Semenov, Research Fellow at PIR Center.

The Report aims to support students enrolled in the Open-Source Intelligence course within the International Security Master’s program, a joint initiative of MGIMO University and PIR Center. The course will cover the fundamental principles and tools of open-source intelligence, explore the potential for automation in OSINT research, and present methods for assessing the completeness, reliability, and potential misinformation of collected data.

Modern information technologies enable the effective identification of current and emerging threats to the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Recent notable achievements include U.S. experts identifying potential deployment areas for Chinese ICBMs using satellite imagery, analyzing Iran’s missile program through satellite data, and assessing North Korean ICBM specifications based on military parade photographs.

A key advantage of integrating new technologies into open-source intelligence is their ability to leverage unconventional sources to supplement and verify traditional ones, such as the press, television, and official statements. OSINT involves working with vast amounts of potentially valuable data, including satellite images, photographs, videos, and social media content.

PIR Center actively employs open-source intelligence methods in its research projects. These methodological approaches were rigorously applied in the analytical report New Nuclear Nine? Assessing Nuclear Proliferation Threats in the World. An updated version of this study is scheduled for release by the end of 2025.

The Report was developed within the PIR Center’s “Reports Series” (№ 44) as part of the joint PIR Center & MGIMO University project “Global Security, Strategic Stability, and Arms Control” under the “Priority-2030” Strategic Academic Leadership Program.

Keywords: OSINT; Arms Control; International Security

OSINT

F4/SOR – 25/02/21