MOSCOW, OCTOBER 29, 2025. PIR PRESS. «Russia and Mongolia share a long history of friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation. In 2024, the two countries marked the 85th anniversary of the Soviet-Mongolian victory at the Battle of Khalkhin Gol, and in 2025, they celebrated the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. Amid global challenges and shifts in the international system, the partnership between our nations is opening new opportunities – especially in energy and regional security. For Russia, expanding cooperation with Asian countries is crucial, aligning with the idea of the ‘Siberianization of Russia.’ Mongolia today is one of the largest reserves of strategic minerals – copper, coal, uranium, lithium, titanium, and rare earth elements. It also holds a strategic transit position as part of the ‘Silk Road,’ and its declared policy of permanent neutrality enables it to serve as a platform for addressing regional and global issues. At the 2025 Eastern Economic Forum, the President of Russia reaffirmed the commitment to a strategic partnership with Mongolia. In this context, it is important to evaluate current cooperation prospects and the risks that have emerged since the collapse of the USSR», – Mr. Roman Kalinin, Research Fellow at PIR Center.
PIR Center, jointly with MGIMO University, hosted a seminar titled “Russia and Mongolia: Eternal Neighbors and New Partners.”
The study was released as part of the PIR Center Report Series (№41) and focuses on the emerging competition for Mongolia’s energy resources. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for bilateral cooperation between Russia and Mongolia in the energy sector – including nuclear energy – as well as in the exploration and extraction of strategically important mineral resources.
The main report at the seminar was presented by Mr. Sergey Demin, Executive Director of the Rosatom Mongolia and a member of PIR Center Executive Board since 2024. The expert offered a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future outlook of Russian-Mongolian relations. The speaker outlined the historical roots of bilateral cooperation, highlighting the vital role of the USSR in establishing the Mongolian People’s Republic and fostering its economic, educational, and social development. At times, Soviet aid comprised up to one-third of Mongolia’s GDP, helping the country achieve an unprecedented transition from feudalism to a modern state.
However, after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Mongolia was mostly left to fend for itself. The country faced a severe economic crisis but managed to survive the 1990s and 2000s thanks to extensive humanitarian aid from Japan, South Korea, and Western nations. As a result, a generation grew up with Western-oriented values, considering Japan, the United States, and South Korea as key foreign partners. During this period, Russia’s influence in Mongolia was minimal; in fact, some decisions – such as Russia’s 2016 sale of its stake in “Erdenet” and “Mongolrostsvetmet” – were perceived in Mongolia as signs of Russia’s final retreat from the country.
Mr. Sergey Demin described modern Mongolia as a unique example of a stable democracy in Asia. Regular changes of government occur, political monopolies are absent, and democratic institutions function effectively. Despite frequent cabinet reshuffles, Mongolia has achieved impressive economic growth: over the past 35 years, the minimum wage has increased from $4 to $220, and the average salary from $100 to $650 – figures comparable to neighboring Russian regions.
Touching on current international dynamics, the expert noted that Mongolia maintains a neutral stance regarding the special military operation, although parts of the opposition criticize Russia’s actions. Fearing secondary sanctions, Mongolian banks avoid working with companies linked to Russia, making economic cooperation more difficult.
Nevertheless, the speaker highlighted that there are significant opportunities for deepening bilateral collaboration. Priority areas include: modernization of the Ulaanbaatar Railway; construction of a small modular nuclear power plant in Kharkhorin with Rosatom’s involvement; resumption of uranium mining; and implementation of the “Soyuz-Vostok” gas pipeline project.
According to Mr. Sergey Demin, these initiatives could usher in a new phase in the strategic partnership between Russia and Mongolia. He also emphasized the importance of expanding Russia’s cultural and informational presence in Mongolia, developing soft power tools, and encouraging Russian businesses to enter the Mongolian market. “Mongolia is a stable, nearby, and logistically accessible country with vast natural resources and long-standing ties to Russia – its potential remains largely untapped,” he concluded.
Mr. Roman Kalinin, Research Fellow at PIR Center, highlighted the economic and resource dimensions of Russian-Mongolian cooperation in the main report. Mongolia’s economy is expanding at about 6%, with GDP reaching approximately $22.84 billion in 2024. The mining sector makes up 28% of GDP and continues to be a primary driver of growth.
The speaker cited Mongolia’s long-term development plan, “Vision 2050,” which seeks to transform the country into a high-income, digital, and environmentally sustainable economy. A key part of this plan is the concept of “Third Neighbors”– partners who do not share borders with Mongolia but are actively engaged in cooperation.
Positioned between Russia and China, Mongolia has a unique pattern of foreign economic relationships: Russia remains the main supplier of energy and machinery, while China accounts for about 70% of its trade volume. The speaker emphasized the growing strategic significance of rare earth elements, lithium, and titanium for both civilian and defense sectors. Mongolia has significant potential in this area, although a detailed map of confirmed deposits has yet to be created, limiting large-scale investment.
Mr. Roman Kalinin also highlighted increasing foreign competition for Mongolia’s resources. Over the past two years, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and the United States have stepped up their involvement through projects focused on critical minerals, industrial equipment, and energy. A key example is the U.S.-South Korea-Mongolia trilateral cooperation model, where the U.S. and Korea provide funding and technology, while Mongolia acts as the production base.
Mr. Roman Kalinin emphasized the importance of multilateral collaboration within the EAEU and SCO, especially the potential for energy and resource partnerships among Russia, China, and Mongolia. The expert also stressed the need to liberalize trade policies: on June 27, 2025, during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Minsk, the EAEU and Mongolia signed a Free Trade Agreement, which Mongolia has yet to ratify.
In conclusion, Mr. Roman Kalinin urged Russia to take proactive steps – expanding economic and energy cooperation and showing commitment to long-term projects – while calling on Mongolia to create more predictable investment conditions. Only mutual interest, the expert emphasized, can turn the partnership from a theoretical discussion into practical action on strategic initiatives.
At the seminar held on October 2, 2025, Mr. Jiang Fangqiu, a second-year student of MAprogram “International Security”, delivered a presentation on the topic of strategic partnership between China and Mongolia at the present stage. The student noted that relations between China and Mongolia are developing within the framework of a comprehensive strategic partnership based on mutual respect and benefit. China remains Mongolia’s largest trading partner and actively participates in infrastructure projects.
Mr. Jiang Fangqiu paid special attention to the alignment of the “Belt and Road” and “Steppe Road” initiatives, as well as the development of the China-Mongolia-Russia EconomicCorridor, aimed at expanding transport and trade connectivity. The speaker emphasized the importance of border and energy cooperation, including the prospects for joint uranium development, and noted China’s commitment to respecting Mongolia’s independence and neutrality.
According to the student, the potential for bilateral cooperation remains high and can become a driving force for the development of the entire region.
The seminar concluded with remarks by Dr. Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Department for Korea and Mongolia at the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, and PIR Center Advisory Board Member since 2013.
The speaker praised the analytical depth of Mr. Demin and Mr. Kalinin’s presentations, highlighting their focus on how Mongolia successfully established a genuine democratic system. Dr. Vorontsov described this as a unique phenomenon in the post-Soviet space, noting that Mongolia has moved into a stable parliamentary democracy.
The expert offered an original explanation, linking Mongolia’s democratic resilience to its nomadic traditions. “A nomad makes independent decisions, chooses his path, and bears responsibility for the outcome. This ingrained sense of autonomy naturally aligns with the spirit of Western democracy,” Dr. Vorontsov explained. Unlike neighboring Confucian societies – where collectivism and state authority are prevalent – Mongolia traditionally developed a culture of personal responsibility, which laid the foundation for its democratic development.
Dr. Vorontsov also shared his impressions from recent international conferences, including the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue, noting the active participation of the OSCE and Western countries seeking to boost their presence in Mongolia. “The ‘battle for Mongolia’ today is not only economic but also ideological, cultural, and academic,” he remarked, observing that the West considers Mongolia a potential “democratic outpost” in Asia.
In conclusion, the speaker highlighted that despite its small population and being close to three major powers – Russia, China, and the United States – Mongolia shows impressive resilience, confidence, and independence. “This country knows its place in history and steadfastly maintains a balance among the great powers,” Dr. Vorontsov concluded.
