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Stability in Chaos: The African Great Lakes Conflict and Its International Context
Mr. Herman Selyavin, 2nd year Master’s student of the International Security Program (MGIMO University & PIR Center),
March 26, 2026
Today, we are pleased to present a review by Mr. Herman Selyavin, a second-year Master’s student in the International Security Program (MGIMO University & PIR Center), of the working paper Fault Lines: Conflict in the African Great Lakes Region and Its International Context (Russian International Affairs Council, 2024).
In the heart of Africa, where the Great Lakes waters hide centuries-old conflicts beneath their surface, the region remains an arena where ethnic cleansing, resource competition, and geopolitical ambitions collide. With local conflicts in Africa increasingly becoming the arena for global geopolitical confrontations, the Great Lakes region of Africa remains one of the most complex and unstable spaces on the planet.
The workbook “Fault Lines: Conflict in the African Great Lakes Region and Its International Context”, published in 2024 by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, is a deep and multifaceted study of this protracted crisis. The work combines the efforts of Russian and African experts, offering not only a chronicle of events, but also an analytical look at the causes, dynamics and possible solutions to the conflict, with a special focus on the confrontation between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda[1].
The conflict in the African Great Lakes region, as this workbook convincingly demonstrates, is a multi-vector process where historical grievances, ethnic tensions, economic interests and geopolitical ambitions are intertwined in a complex way. Based on the analysis presented in the work, the roots of the crisis go back to the colonial past and the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, which is a central factor shaping the chronic instability of the region.
Dr. Tatyana Denisova and Dr. Sergey Kostelyanets, examining the historical background, emphasize that the colonial division of Africa and subsequent chaotic waves of migration created the conditions for chronic hostility between the Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups. Their analysis provides a foundation for understanding why the conflict remains unresolved despite numerous attempts at resolution.
Valence Maniragena and Sergey Karamayev focus on personal factors, such as the ambitions of the leaders of Rwanda and the DRC, which appear to complicate diplomatic efforts. Their work makes clear that the conflict is not only a clash of states, but also a struggle of individual political strategies, which adds further complexity.
Turning to the military dynamics, the workbook offers a thorough analysis of the key actors in the conflict. Dr. Leonid Tsukanov’s chapter, “M23: characteristics, ambitions, capabilities”, makes a significant contribution to understanding the role of non-state actors. March 23 Movement (also known as M23), which emerged from the National Congress for the Defense of the People(in French: Congrès national pour la défense du peuple, CNDP), founded by General Laurent Nkunda in 2006, positions itself as the protector of the ethnic Tutsi in North Kivu.
However, analysis shows that its actions pursue broader goals, including control over resources and trade routes. Leonid Tsukanov estimates the group’s strength at 500-700 fighters, although some sources say 2,000, and emphasizes its ability to hold territory despite limited resources.
M23’s alleged support from Rwanda, although Kigali denies this, and focuses on the group’s economic motives, such as control of the Mombasa-Goma route. This analysis, which could be complemented by a description of M23’s internal structure, provides important context for understanding its role in the conflict.
In particular, Dr. Leonid Tsukanov highlights the dual nature of the group: the protection of Tutsis is combined with economic and territorial ambitions, making its actions part of a wider proxy war. His work also draws attention to the growing threat of jihadist groups in the region, which adds a new layer of complexity to the conflict.
Complementing this picture, Dr. Maxim Nikulin analyzes the capabilities of the DRC and Rwandan armed forces, highlighting their asymmetry, which makes M23’s actions even more significant in the regional context. His work reinforces Dr. Tsukanov’s findings by showing how the weakness of the Congolese army creates space for groups like M23 to operate.
The conflict in the Great Lakes region is characterized not only by the M23, but also by the activities of other armed groups such as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)[2] and the Mayi-Mayi militias. The ADF, linked to the Islamic State, operates in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, attacking civilians and fueling instability. The Mayi-Mayi militias, local self-defense groups, are often formed to protect communities, but their activities sometimes overlap with those of the M23, leading to conflicts or ad hoc alliances. These groups appear to complicate the conflict dynamics by creating a multi-layered web of rivalries where competition for resources and territory intertwines with ethnic and political motives.
Based on this, the conflict is a multi-layered pie, where many disparate and different in their goals and objectives interest groups are concentrated. It can be assumed that without taking into account all these actors, any attempts at settlement will remain limited, since their actions directly affect the security of the Central African region.
The economic aspects of the conflict, as the workbook convincingly demonstrates, are one of the main drivers of its persistence. Dr. Denis Degterev examines the Lobito Corridor, a strategic mineral transportation project that has become an arena for competition between the US and China. His analysis highlights how global geopolitical interests amplify local instability, creating additional challenges for resolution.
Vsevolod Sviridov, in turn, reveals how the illegal mining of cobalt, coltan and gold fuels armed groups, including M23, and exacerbates the problem of corruption in the DRC. Based on their findings, one can assume that without addressing the problem of illegal trade in resources, any peace initiatives will remain unreliable and sometimes pointless.
These articles seamlessly link M23’s military actionsto economic interests, showing that the conflict is not only a struggle for power but also for economic dominance. In this context, Dr. Tsukanov’s analysis takes on added significance as it highlights how M23 uses control over resources to strengthen its position, which appears to reinforce the economic motivation for the conflict. Moreover, the mention of the possible creation of a buffer zone between the DRC and Rwanda adds a strategic geopolitical dimension, highlighting the long-term risks for the region.
The humanitarian consequences of the conflict, as examined by Maya Nikolskaya and Alexey Demidov, add depth to the analysis of this tragedy. Nikolskaya highlights the marginalization of Rwandophones in Congo (people of Rwandan descent who speak the Kinyarwanda language), which fuels ethnic tensions and provides support for groups like M23. Demidov, for his part, cites figures of more than 7 million displaced people and 23.4 million people facing acute food insecurity, indicating the scale of the crisis. These figures, their analysis shows, reflect not only a humanitarian catastrophe, but also the potential for further destabilization, as desperate communities become vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups. M23’s actions, including violence against civilians, exacerbate this vicious cycle, making conflict resolution even more challenging.
In this sense, the humanitarian section echoes Dr. Tsukanov’s military analysis, highlighting how M23’s actions have far-reaching consequences for the region’s population. Their work appears to highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to resolution that takes into account not only the military but also the social aspects of the crisis.
The conflict in the Great Lakes region has not gone unnoticed by the international community, which has made significant efforts to stabilize the situation. One initiative is the UN Framework for Peace, Security and Cooperation for the DRC and the Region, signed in 2013 by 11 countries in Nairobi, which aims to end cycles of violence through commitments to cease support for armed groups and strengthen regional cooperation. Regional initiatives such as the Luanda and Nairobi processes aim to foster dialogue between the DRC, Rwanda and other stakeholders.
However, as the analysis shows, these efforts face serious obstacles, including mistrust between state leaders and the inability to effectively implement the outlined agreements. Apparently, the success of these initiatives depends on their ability to take into account local realities in the region, contradictions between ethnic groups, and involve all parties to the conflict in the negotiation process.
Since the publication of the workbook in 2024, the situation in the region has deteriorated significantly. In early 2025, M23captured the key cities of Goma and Bukavu[3], deepening the humanitarian crisis and raising fears of a wider regional conflict. However, as recent events show, talks in Qatar in April 2025 and continued in May led to a ceasefire agreement[4], and in June 2025, to peace in the DRC and Rwanda[5]. This offers hope for de-escalation. However, these steps are seen as fragile given ongoing allegations of war crimes against M23.
The Working Paper, while not covering these recent events, provides a solid foundation for understanding their causes, which underlines its relevance. Moreover, its interdisciplinary approach allows the reader to see how historical, military, economic and humanitarian factors are interrelated, creating a complex, multi-layered system where the actions of one actor, such as M23, have a cascading effect on the entire region.
The Working Paper remains a valuable resource for Africanists and international relations scholars, offering an interdisciplinary approach to the analysis of the conflict. Its strength lies in its ability to bring together multiple perspectives to create a holistic picture of the crisis. It can be complex for those unfamiliar with the region, and prior historical context, such as through the Rwandan genocide or resource wars, can help to deepen the understanding of its contents.
The conflict in the Great Lakes region of Africa, as the RIAC Working Paper makes clear, is a global challenge whose scope extends far beyond the region. Its resolution requires not only an end to hostilities, but also addressing deep issues of political governance, resource allocation, and ethnic reconciliation. In this context, the workbook emphasizes the importance of international cooperation, highlighting Russia’s potential role as a mediator, making it an indispensable tool for understanding and finding paths to peace in Africa.
