Nothing New Under the Sun
This section publishes materials from the PIR Center’s long-term archive, which are becoming relevant again today
When would Iran be ready to produce a nuclear weapon? Even the US intelligence community was confused with its own assessments. In 2005, its experts estimated with high confidence that Iran was determined to develop a nuclear weapon despite the international obligations. But in 2007, they understood that Iran was not prepared to do so. If we turn to the 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities, we will see how different the assessment of Iran’s nuclear program became in 2007, and that means even some of the strongest intelligence communities in the world are not exempt from making mistakes.
How long would it take Iran to build a nuclear weapon?
it takeFor decades, this question has preoccupied intelligence services, policymakers, and the media worldwide. In Paper 9. Long Time No Find: Iran and Its Nuclear Program, Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute for International Studies of MGIMO University, offers a comprehensive analysis of the timeline, motivations, and constraints shaping Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Drawing on declassified documents, official IAEA assessments, and diplomatic history, the paper provides critical insights into how breakout scenarios are calculated, why past assessments have often been flawed, and what the international community must consider today amid renewed regional instability. How long would it take Iran to build a nuclear weapon?
First published in Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control. Digital Papers / Eds. Vladimir Orlov and Elena Karnaukhova. PIR Library Series № 36. PIR Center, 2024.
Keywords: Iran; NPT; Nuclear Nonproliferation
NPT
E16/SHAH – 25/07/14
